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Thursday, May 6, 2010

Economic Crisis in Greece



This reminds me so much of the 2001 Crisis. The bank protests, the rioting, financial institutions being attacked, etc.
Maybe Greece has an even greater debt, but they didn’t have our social problems. Thousands of people that took the streets here were people that really couldn’t put food on the table because of unemployment and inflation, their families growing hungry.
Another difference is that in our cases, people weren't the ones living in debt, getting loans, it was the government and the politicians, who also got pretty rich thanks to that debt, so I guess that makes the public outrage even greater. I mean, you didn't have a credit bought car or house to even feel guilty about. It was all money loaned to the Argentine government that we never got to see, only got the tab to pay.
None the less, the resemblance is noticeable, and I suppose economic crisis end up having many similarities once they go down and the middle class starts protesting.

FerFAL

Greek bailout: Athens burns – and crisis strikes at heart of the EU

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/05/greek-bailout-economic-crisis-deaths

At 2.03pm today, on the third floor of a neoclassical building in the heart of Athens, three people died – and Greece changed. As the bank employees tried to beat back the flames, ignited by a firebomb tossed into the building by protesters, the economic crisis enveloping the debt-stricken country not only claimed its first lives: it shifted from bewilderment and disappointment into violence carried on an unpredictable current of rage.
The young bank employees, a man and two women, one of them four months pregnant, died in the fire which came within an hour of irate protesters laying siege to the Greek parliament.

"All of us are angry, very, very angry," bellowed Stella Stamou, a civil servant standing on a street corner, screaming herself hoarse, a block away from where the bank had been set alight.
"You write that – angry, angry, angry, angry," she said, after participating in one of the biggest ever rallies to rock the capital since the return of democracy in 1974. "Angry with our own politicians, angry with the IMF, angry with the EU, angry that we have lost income, angry that we have never been told the truth."
Across Athens today the signs of that anger were everywhere: in the central boulevards and squares that resembled a war zone, the burning cars, the burning hotels, the burning government buildings and rubbish bins and shattered windows and pavements.

Surveying the debris, Karwan Ahmet a 28 year-old Iraqi Kurd caught up in the chaos, described the scene as "being straight out of Iraq. It reminds me of all the shit we saw in Kirkuk."
What had started as a general strike called by unions to protest against deeply unpopular austerity measures turned into a tidal wave of fury as an estimated 100,000 private and public sector workers took to the streets screaming "let the plutocracy pay".
By midday that rage had assumed a new and determined dynamism as demonstrators – including once-stalwart supporters of the governing socialist Pasok party – began to shout "thieves, thieves".
Their venom soon turned towards the large sandstone building that is the Greek parliament. After scuffling with police, chasing the ceremonial guards away from the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and taking axes to the monument, hundreds tried to storm the building, screaming "let the bordello burn".
As MPs inside debated the draconian economic reforms that eurozone nations and the IMF have demanded in return for the biggest bailout in history, riot police outside fired off rounds of acrid teargas to keep the crowd at bay. "All of them are dirty and have eaten from the trough," said one man brandishing a large wooden club. "Our politicians are squarely to blame and the worst of the culprits know it because they have fled the country."

With Greece facing a 19 May deadline to refinance its staggering €300bn euro debt, the EU and IMF agreed last week to inject up to €120bn euro into its cash-starved coffers on condition that Athens makes unprecedented budget cuts.
The tough regime, which also includes a freeze on public sector wages and pensions in addition to tax hikes, has not been seen since the country emerged from the privations of civil war in 1949.
"Why should we, the little man, pay for this crisis?" said Giorgos Didimopoulos, a 55-year-old jeweller who belongs to a communist-backed union which on Tuesday stormed the ancient Acropolis to make precisely that point.
"What people forget is that we Greeks don't like authority. We have always resisted when we think something is unfair. We fought against the Persians at Marathon, the Germans during the second world war and we will fight the IMF because in reality we no longer have a government. It is foreign forces who are in charge of us now."

Polls show that he is not alone. The perception is growing that it is low-income Greeks, already hit by three previous packages of austerity measures, who are being made to suffer disproportionately from the three-year fiscal and structural programme. In repeated surveys the vast majority have said they will take to the streets to oppose the "barbaric" measures. For many, today's violence is a taste of what is to come.
With unions backing the general strike – a walkout that crippled the country and isolated Greece from the rest of the world – the protests were seen as a key test of prime minister George Papandreou's determination to carry out the reforms. Germany, which will be picking up the lion's share of the emergency aid, has been quick to warn that if Athens strays the money will dry up.

But he clearly has a battle on his hands. "No longer can they say that these are isolated incidents of violence carried out by stone-throwing anarchists," said Makis Papadopoulos, who owns a popular tourist store in the capital's historic Plaka district where shopkeepers were fearfully boarding up premises.
"People are being pushed to the hunger line. With the intervention of the IMF things have changed. We now have an explosion situation and no one knows what the limits of Greeks are, how far people will go to vent their spleen." Resolution, say some, will only come with a root-and-branch clean up of Greece's corrupt political system.

Papadopoulos said: "This crisis has taught us that we can't go on acting the way we did, living off loans, treating the state as an endless treasury to be raided, never thinking about our future."

Article comparing Greece & Spain to Argentina‏

Roubini on Greece

Reuters Link

Apr 27, 2010 22:14 EDT
Nouriel Roubini, it can be safely said, gives good panel — especially when the subject is the eurozone and the possible disintegration thereof. He’s been bearish on the PIGS in general and on Italy in particular for many years now, but I don’t think it comes as much surprise to him or to anybody else that Greece is the first country really in the firing line.

One of the most interesting things about the status quo post-downgrade is that no one seems to have a clue what the base-case scenario is. Are the markets still expecting Greece to get bailed out, but adding on an ever-increasing yield premium to account for the possibility that it won’t be? Are they, like panelist James McCaughan, expecting an orderly debt restructuring later this year, with an effective haircut in the 20-40% range? They certainly don’t seem to be expecting anything worse than that — Greece’s bonds are trading at high yields, yes, but not at distressed levels, and there’s still room to lose a lot of money on those 2-year bonds if they end up defaulting.

My feeling is that the base case is one of muddling through for the next 2-3 years, with Greece scrounging up enough money from the EU and IMF to avoid a default, and Europe’s banks meanwhile staying profitable enough thanks to the ECB’s monetary policy that they build up their solvency for when the inevitable default does occur a few years down the road.

But it’s not clear that the markets are going to let that happen. It’s all well and good for the Germans and others to cover the Greek fiscal deficit for the next three years, and even to insist on tough fiscal adjustment at the same time. But if Greek yields stay anywhere near their current levels, there’s a good risk that would be politically unacceptable in both Germany and Greece. Sweden’s Bo Lundgren was also on the panel, and he helped explain how the Swedish population has the crucial and decidedly un-Greek ability to unite behind unpopular yet necessary policies once their political leaders have set a certain course. Greece, which is already seeing riots at any hint of fiscal austerity, just isn’t the kind of nation which is likely to decide that five years of wage cuts in a painful and deflationary recession is a price worth paying to stay current on the national debt.

Meanwhile, Tony Barber has already come to the conclusion that as far as Greece is concerned, “the political conditions for extra financial help from Germany just do not exist”.
Nouriel, of course, takes that kind of thinking to its logical conclusion, and kicked off the panel by announcing that it was just in time: “in a few days,” he said, “there might not be a eurozone for us to discuss.” There’s no way that Greece can implement the 10% spending cut it needs to do in order to stop its debt spiralling out of control at current interest rates — and even if it did, the economic effects would be disastrous.
Nouriel’s base case, then, is Argentina 2001: after all, Greece has a much higher debt-to-GDP ratio, much higher deficit-to-GDP ratio, and much higher current-account deficit than Argentina had back then. And if that’s the base case, there’s no way that Greek debt should be trading anywhere near its current levels.

Of course, this being Nouriel, it goes downhill from there: if Greece is worse than Argentina, he says, then Spain is worse than Greece. Its housing bubble and bust has left the banking sector much weaker than Greece’s; its unemployment situation, especially with the under-30 crowd, is much worse than Greece’s; and the cost of any Spain bailout would be so much more enormous than the cost of a Greek bailout as to be almost unthinkable. The only thing that Spain has going for it is that it isn’t quite at the edge of the abyss yet; if it gets its political act together and implements tough fiscal and structural reforms now, it can save itself. But clearly no one saw that happening, given Spain’s political history over the past 20 years.

There’s no good news here. The least bad course of action for Greece, in Nouriel’s eyes, is some kind of coercive yet orderly debt restructuring, which keeps the face value of the debt unchanged but which reduces coupons and pushes out maturities. And an exit from the euro. Alternatively, the ECB steps in and cuts interest rates so low that the euro gets pushed down towards parity with the dollar, which would accomplish something similar without nearly as much pain.
One member of the audience, though, had a really good question: what happens to the European system of sovereign guarantees of interbank lending? When those sovereign guarantees aren’t worth much any more, Euribor is likely to spike, since suddenly there’s a lot more credit risk involved in interbank lending. And there are hundreds of trillions of euros of debt contracts linked to Euribor, which could suddenly get very expensive and take control of short-term interest rates out of the hands of the ECB.

And in any case it’s worth remembering that even though Greece’s debts are small in relation to Spain’s, they’re still large in relation to, say, those of Lehman Brothers. And given that there is no formal mechanism for leaving the euro (or for defaulting on sovereign euro-denominated debt, for that matter), there will almost certainly be a range of unexpected and chaotic events somewhere down the line. That’s why I feel that although Greek bond yields are certainly going to be volatile for a while, we’re going to see higher highs and higher lows — there’s pretty much nothing, at this point, which could reassure the markets and turn Greece back into an interest-rate play rather than a credit play.

Even a massive IMF bailout, which is probably the best-case scenario for Greece right now, wouldn’t suffice to bring yields back down to their pre-crisis levels. As Nouriel pointed out, the IMF, as a preferred creditor, would make sure it was repaid, in the event of default, long before bondholders. And as a result, even if the probability of default dropped, the recovery value on Greek bonds in the event of default would drop as well. And so yields wouldn’t come down as much as you might think.

I covered emerging market sovereign bonds for many years, but I’ve never seen anything like this: a country trading at levels where the bear case is terrifying, the bull case is very hard to articulate, and everybody is talking about a possible default even when the country has an investment-grade credit rating from two agencies and is only one notch below investment grade at the third. Maybe the only thing which really explains what’s going on is that both yields and ratings are sticky. Which would imply that Greece has a long way to deteriorate from here.

101 Uses: Duct Tape


Pretty much everyone knows hw practical it is. I've improvised luggage repairs with it, fixed hoses, and once stuck a loose rare view mirror with it.
Gorilla Tape seems to be Duct Tape on steroids, very much doing everything DT does, only better. Haven’t tried it myself yet but I’ll sure bring a few with me from my trip to Texas.

·  Hanging posters.
·  Decorative book cover.
·  Fix broken tail light on vehicle.
·  Twist a long piece into rope (thousands more uses).
·  Tape wires down on floor or out of the way.
·  Tape wires back together after splicing (much wider than electricians' tape).
·  Reattach rear view mirror.
·  Repair cracked windshield/window.
·  Patch ripped clothing.
·  Hide unsightly wallpaper seams.
·  Repair broken hoses.
·  Repair broken fan belt.
·  Use as art medium.
·  Fix broken book binding.
·  Band-Aid for really big cuts.
·  Attach leg splint to broken leg.
·  Wallpaper your house (may be slightly expensive, but well worth it for the resulting sophisticated look).
·  Reinforce pages in 3 ring binder.
·  Cover up empty drive bays.
·  Fold in half and use as bookmark.
Click on the original source for many more crazy uses :-)
http://thezac.com/ducttape/

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Water, water, water...

You always have it as if by magic but when you dont, you see the light.
Water must be the most underestimated survival supply. Store as much as you can. FULL CONTANIERS PLEASE! You dont get a SHTF notice. Ever. So an empty container of any kind is just that.
Notice in the article below how important it is to know how to treat water and have the nescesary tools and knowledge.
Pool shock as a long term water purification supply, but most of all a good water filter such as the Berkey, sold by our sponsor, Directive 21.
Notice how things are rarely black and white. If lukcy, you'll have some sort of water, but you'll need to treat it well.

Huge water pipe breach imperils region

Fiasco leaves 2 million Bay Staters high and dry


FerFAL

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Items to get before SHTF

Hi Ferfal,

I have a question for you. I believe that the US is headed toward a financial collapse similar to what you lived through in Argentina, with a looming debt bubble about to burst, and the value of the dollar likely to plummet. When the first signs of the collapse appeared in Argentina, what were some things you wish you had stocked up on right away that were still available for awhile in stores, but later were hard to obtain? I'm most interested in food items, "luxury" items like gourmet coffee or wines, household items, appliances, anything that is not survival-gear related like you normally discuss but which make life a little nicer when the SHTF. I'm thinking, one day in the US we will hear about a treasury bond auction that tanks, and we will have a short time to get these types of things before it is apparent to everyone that a collapse is coming. In this strategy/scenario, I am thinking there is a global economic depression, and that I am staying in my current home and getting through it as best I can.

Thanks for all the info, Ferfal. Love your book!

Karen
Arizona, USA


Hi Karen, you’re right about food. I had some but I quickly got more because of the lootings, closed supermarkets and empty shelves. You never knew when a group of protesters would drop by and if they didn’t reach an agreement with the supermarket clerks, it could end up in looting.

Even worse than food, when we had problems with the water supply a couple years later, it was amazing how the shelves went empty in just a few hours. Water is much more precious, but people are too used to having it readily available.
I was just getting married and had an old TV, I wanted a new one but for some reason I postponed the “silly box” purchase for a bit too long. Before I realized the silly box went up in price in pesos to meet its old US dollar price, so I very much regretted not buying it before.

Ammo went up in price too, and I wished I had stocked better in some calibers ( 22LR mostly that used to be so cheap) before the crisis. I should say that I had enough guns and ammo, but a firearm would sure be at the top of the list if I didn't have one back then. Keep this in mind, those of you that are still unarmed.

Electronics and appliances went up in price a lot, and you rarely think of a spare washing machine as a Preparedness good, but if you have to replace a broken one after a financial collapse with hyperinflation killing you, you’ll see what I mean. That’s why I recommend in my book, "The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse", having spare appliances if you happen to come by some of the most important ones at a good price and in good condition. A spare chest freezer or a spare fridge in the basement or garage, another washing machine (using both so as to keep them both operational) and a second car, a spare used desktop computer and printer, those are all good ideas.

Keep this in mind before throwing away anything simply because you bought a new one or it broke. Its often easy and cheap to repair broken appliances but people don’t even bother asking around. It used to be that way here too, but now anything that can get fixed gets repaired, unless the cost is greater than buying new.
You don’t want to end up buying a new washing machine after a financial collapse, even used appliances go up in price a lot, often more than the used to cost brand new before.

Anything that was imported, makeup for the ladies, certain shampoos, it all went up in price.
Its not a bad idea either to buy/sell using ebay to make some money, checking out yard sales or auctions and selling it on line.
Better to start doing all these things now and not think of them as things you do “after SHTF”.

FerFAL