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Friday, August 5, 2011

ID Document in Argentina? Only if you’re Illegal.

My wife went to get her new ID document this morning and just came back empty handed.
The new identification document is necessary for voting in the next elections and there are some places around the city where they supposedly deliver the ID the same day, but after waiting in line for a couple of hours a person informed her that they had ran out of numbers for “her type” of ID.
“What do you mean my type of ID?” my wife asked.
“We have IDs, but only for those that are without documentation”.

Those without documentations would be the illegal immigrants. Thanks to the Mercosur agreement they can cross the border as they please. Officially they would need a job to stay here as residents, but none of them do. They just come an sign up for welfare, join the ruling political party, don’t pay taxes, demand that a house must be given to them for free (and sometimes get one) or simply squatter private property or build a shack in a park or some other state or privately owned land. Then they simply hook up so as to steal electric power and cut a road until water is installed too in their property, for free.

So my wife had to leave the line because they had no more documents for “her type”, you know, Argentine citizens, while the illegals from Bolivia, Paraguay and Peru waited for their ID.
This is pretty clever folks. There’s no better way to ensure that “that type” of people have an ID to vote in the coming presidential elections, so as to keep in office the person that allows them to get away with all this, while the real citizens, they wont have the new ID and therefore will not be able to vote. Genius, pure genius people, applauses please.

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FerFAL

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Interview by Tekoa Da Silva for ContraryInvestorscafe.com


Yesterday I got interviewed by Tekoa Da Silva from ContraryInvestorscafe.com
It went well and its already uploaded if you want to listen to it. There’s also a pic of me actually wearing a suit. :-)

Thanks Tekoa for the interview!
Here’s the link
http://www.contraryinvestorscafe.com/fernando-aguirre/

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FerFAL

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Moving to Cafayate, Salta, in Argentina?

FerFAL,
Recently got and enjoyed your book.  Scary times ahead but very practical information and suggestions as opposed to buy a cabin and spending tens of thousands of dollars stocking it etc…..
I’m in financial services and one of the researchers I read suggests having a place to go in another country, similar to you.  He has chosen Argentina.  Here is the link to the place.  http://www.laestanciadecafayate.com/
I thought this was interesting since you are writing about survival based on reality in Argentina and he’s look at Argentina as a place to survive when the SHTF in the U.S.  Any thoughts.
Again really appreciate you sharing your knowledge!
Thanks
Ryan


Hi Ryan,
I’m glad you enjoyed my book.
The researcher you read makes that suggestion because he happens to be very much interested in selling you his real estate investment in Argentina. There’s nothing wrong with that but it is up to you to investigate beyond the salesman’s speech.
Why chose Argentina and market it as the best place in the planet to live in? I´m sure the decision to build in Argentina is for the client’s best interest and not merely looking to maximize profit by building in a poor country hundreds of thousands of locals that had the means to do so decided to leave behind. What confuses me is that besides building in a poor country, they chose to build this country club in one of its poorest provinces, in the province of Salta, almost 2000 miles away from the country’s only international airport. Rich people in Argentina live in the safe parts of Buenos Aires like Recoleta, but then again you can buy all the land you want in Salta for the price of an apartment in Recoleta.
You’d think that begin in the belly of a country that is already the belly of the world would have some benefits. Maybe solitude, isolation from the cruel reality around you? Well,… no.  in Cafayate you’re not just far away from Buenos Aires, you’re also just 20 km away from Tucuman, the poorest province, with the greatest amount of poor people in Argentina. This is actually where people first started to starve to death in Argentina after 2001 (little girl Barbarita)

You’d think that being 20 km away from this paradise that is Salta people from Tucuman would just walk and pick the plentitude of fruits that just happen to pour out of the ground. Well… no. You see, Cafayate (which is in the province of Salta) , Tucuman and most of the northwest of Argentina is desert. You have wine, but that’s all you’re going be growing there, using artificial irrigation.  Argentina is a long country with different climates. The pampas are green, lustful, that’s where most of the crops and cattle are. So is the northeast with its plentitude of water. Rich Americans bought in Patagonia down south, that’s where the lakes are and Ted Turner bought a huge place, his own private lake included so as to ensure his water supply. But Salta? That’s mostly desert, and without artificial irrigation you’d have no golf, no wine and nothing growing there. This is a huge strategic mistake, placing yourself in one of the few places in Argentina that seriously lacks water. Land is cheap there though, so that’s an advantage if you’re looking to buy for little money, build houses and then sell for 400.000 USD a pop. In terms of business, yes, if you plan on buying a few acres, building some roads and homes and selling it to Americans for what it would cost to buy a nice home in a first world country, by all means go for it.

Such a middle of nowhere place should be safe at least. Well… no. You’re close to the border with Bolivia and drugs, illegal weapons and sex slaves go back and forth all day. You’re too close to dirt poor Tucuman which has its own share of shanty towns (the place IS mostly shantytowns) and Salta is plenty of poor on its own in spite of some locations where tourists visit. “FerFAL, you’re mean, stupid and hate Salta for some reason!” Well…no. As a matter of fact just two days ago a couple of French tourist girls got brutally raped and murdered in Salta, just a few miles away from supposedly safe Cafayate. Don’t hold your breath, it has happened before and the murderers will not be found. People getting killed in Argentina happens just too often for any serious investigation, especially in a God forsaken province up northwest.
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/74523/two-french-tourists-found-dead-in-salta-
Salta is still beautiful. The desert, la Puna, Salta capital city? Just a beautiful little town and the colors in the desert, those red, orange and brown combine in incredible ways. Hotter than hell but beautiful.
Infrastructure? Well… no.  Salta is small, Cafayate 100 miles away from the capital city of Salta is just a few blocks across (9 blocks across to be precise) of which two are pictouresque, including one block that is a nice little park. Other than that it’s a dirt poor little town in the middle of nowhere. Yes, you can buy wine there. Then again you can buy the same wine or better in any city of this planet. Guess where the best wines of Argentina get exported to? Everywhere else except 10.000 population, dirt poor Cafayate. You better like the wine they make there a lot because that’s all you’ll be drinking.
I try not to sound one sided and keep looking for things that would make a sane person drop half a million bucks in Cafayate. Lets see… education. No at all. You wont find a half good school anywhere near the place. You may find a bilingual school in Salta capital city if you’re willing to commute 200 miles every day. Still the education you’d get there would be poor at any level and your kids will hate your guts if you took them from USA to such a place. Now if you come from Liberia where people eat each other after combat, that’s different. I’d rather live in Cafayate than Liberia. But then again if I had half a million dollars to spend, or even USD 200.000, I wouldn’t chose to move to Salta. Don’t take my word for all this. Use google maps and you can see all of this, drop the little yellow guy and take a look at all that beautiful desert all around you.

In terms of fun, restaurants and entertainment all you have is a couple restaurants in Cafayate itself (which I’m sure are world class) and the golf of the country club itself and that’s it. Forget about ever catching a last minute movie ever again (unless you drive the 200 miles back and forth to Salta city) What if you need medical attention? Like what if you break a leg or suffer an attack? If you broke a leg or got cut you better know how to stop the bleeding, man up and drive to Salta City unless you want to risk it with one of these little emergency rooms where you’ll mostly catch an infection and they have the equipment and personnel to barely stitch you up (without anesthesia). A heart attack? Hey, you get to die surrounded by beautiful desert. There’s far worse ways to go.
Now don’t get me wrong here folks, please. All I know of Argentina is based on living here practically all my life, having traveled from Salta to Ushuaia, living in the province of Cordoba for two years, the rest in Buenos Aires, so that’s as far as my knowledge goes. I shoot every Friday and after that have dinner with street cops, police sergeants, special operations instructors, a judge and a local district attorney and we always end up talking about the crime problem in our country. That’s how I learn certain things that I’ll never see on TV, like for example that several police districts in the city don’t have enough money to buy the gasoline needed to patrol the streets every day, so one day a week patrols are canceled, and its that day when you especially don’t want to risk going out because it becomes no man’s land.

Maybe its main trait is that it’s a cheap place to live in. Well… no. The properties in this particular place seem to be selling pretty expensive. They start at USD 200.000 and go up to USD 600.000. Seems that the golf and “wine” justify this sort of price. “But I’m sure its dirt cheap to live there, Fernando”. Well I’m sure its not. The price of the property is already more than what I would pay even if I’m drunk, high on heroin and you put a gun to my head. Ok, maybe if you threat to shoot me, that’s the only way I’d pay those prices in Salta. These sort of places have HUGE fixed expenses, and the cost of living in Salta, WITH THE LIFE STANDARD AN AMERICAN IS USED TO, will indeed be significant. Some people live in Salta with 500 USD a month, some live in Salta with nothing at all, but then again I doubt an American is planning to live in Salta in a mud hut with a dirt floor, with no running water, eating fried tortillas to survive, which is how these people that live with such low incomes manage to live.

Golf playing, wine drinking American expat, with a big house and a couple maids  in Cafayate or anywhere else? Yes you can do it if you have 10.000 USD a month at your disposal.  Maids aren’t cheap, not even in Cafayate and especially not when a rich American is paying. Health care is just as expensive as in USA, buying a car will cost twice as much, the expenses will soon pile up beyond what you could possibly believe. Buying anything from a washing machine to a TV or a simple flash drive will cost you 3 or 4 times as much as you would pay in USA. Buenos Aires is already expensive, this sort of gig in Salta will blow your mind after a few months.
What about your rights, Argentine politics? In political and legal terms it’s like living in Venezuela for an American. Chavez and our president Cristina are best buds and think alike. Soon enough I wouldn’t be surprised if they take away the property of “gringos”.

As beautiful as Salta is, its mostly freaking desert, and you have just as beautiful places, even prettier ones, more vast with wildlife you cant even dream of in Argentina, already in USA. No sane person leaves USA for Argentina because of nature. For a nature lover USA is a far better option. Go to California if you want wine that bad. Half a million buck home? Why not France?
Having said all that, the heart wants what the heart wants. If you must live in Cafayate by all means do so. When you need a tooth repaired or to buy some clothes and need to travel to Buenos Aires drop by and we’ll have some coffee if I’m still living in Argentina. If I had that kind of money and income I know Salta would be the last place on Earth were I’d end up.

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FerFAL

Monday, August 1, 2011

What does a CIA agent carry?


Sure, many of them are people sitting behind a desk, or gathering intelligence by being the most normal, least assuming people you could think of. But what of those that go to dangerous places on their own, where the risk factor is considerable, working in hostile territory?

Some of you may remember Raymond Davis and the incident where he shot two suspects in Pakistan.  The pistol used was a Glock 17 9mm, he also had several spare magazines and other interesting equipment, many of which we have talked about here. As a person dealing with dangerous situations in overall hostile territory without backup readily available, he had to plan for several possible survival situations. It´s no wonder then that he carried a handgun, knives, GPS, compass, flashlights (including a headlamp), other navigation tools and medical supplies for treating injuries if he got shot, among other items. Here’s the photo and list of gear found in his vehicle.


1. Glock 9 mm pistol (1)
2. 9 mm pistol magazine (5)
3. Ammunition, 9 mm pistol (75)
4. Tracker alongwith charger (1) [Remarks: GPS map 60 CSX]
5. Purse (1)
6. Wireless set (1)
7. Wireless set battery (1)
8. Cutter (2)
9. Mobile along with 1x battery (2) [Remarks: Nokia 6300, 1100]
10. Head torch (1)
11. Digital camera (1)
12. Small telescope (1)
13. Small torch (1)
14. Bandage (5)
15. QuikClot (1)
16. Hyfin chest seal (1) [Remarks: Mask]
17. Integrity Medical (1)
18. Health care Stike (1)
19. Simple light torch (1)
20. Priority 1 Immediate (1)
21. Cyalum chemical light(3)
22. Rescue products (2)
23. Needle decompression (1)
24. Rusch Sterile (1)
25. Notice card (1)
26. Duracell AA batteries (8)
27. Key Honda Civic (1) [Remarks: LED 10-680]
28. Diary (1)
29. Packet Tobacco (1)
30. Handbag (1)
31. Keychain with key (1) [Remarks: Alongwith 2x V-Card-Contact Card]
32. Contact cards (18)
33. Memory card (1)
34. Pakistani currency (Total: Rs. 5,605/-) [Remarks: Rs. 1000*5, 100*4, 50*3, 20*2, 10*1, 5*1]
35. American Dollars (Total: $ 126) [Remarks: $ 100*1, 20*1, 5*1, 1*1]
36. ATM Bank Cards (5)
37. Copy of PIA ticket (1)
38. Receipt money exchange (1)
39. Receipt Al-Falah bank (1)
40. Chit Embassy (1)
41. Black Cheque (2) [Remarks: USAA Federal Saving Bank]
42. Passport (1)

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FerFAL

Sunday, July 31, 2011

The next 72hs: What last minute preps to take?


Lets say the US economy crashes in a day. What kind of specific things should we expect in the first 72 hours? How can we best stay safe and out of harms way? 
 What quick last minute preps should someone who has followed your advice for years now take? 
Thanks!
Burt
Hi Burt,
The worst case scenario would be one in which the debt ceiling isn’t raised by August 02. Even if that happens an actual default could take a few more days or weeks. In any case if you look at a worst case scenario it could be similar to what we saw in December 2001. Looks scary? Sure does. Can it be dangerous? Sure, even more so if you don’t know how to act in such cases. Is it the end of the world as Americans know it? No, and eventually order would be restored, but the political and economic reality in USA would be permanently crippled if it happens. Then again many of the things that concern people are already happening, even if it’s not as dramatic as an outspoken default.

What you would be looking at would be civil unrest in most mayor US cities and thousands of minor ones as well. Once the images of people looting and getting away with it hit the TV you’re looking at thousands of bums thinking of doing the same thing and rushing out the door to the nearest store. That gets bad pretty fast. You’re talking about looting, fires, closed stores, destruction of vehicles and private property, and given US context some gang related activity taking advantage of the lawless situation as well to settle scores. While invasion of residential properties wont be as common as the looting of commercial property, it can happen in several cases.
In this context the worst thing you can do is getting on a vehicle and travel to wherever you think might be safer. Traveling and being out there is exactly what you want to avoid. For thousands if not millions of people staying put back during the 2001 collapse was the best choice, even if they saw all this pandemonium happening through the window and right across the street. For that reason that’s exactly what I’d recommend. Lock the doors, have a flashlight in case the power goes down and a weapon in case some two-legged vermin gets any ideas.

This anarchic situation can last a few days but it eventually calms down. After that you may see sporadic cases of rioting and looting starting again, an overall sense of greater danger and criminal activity in general, but other than that things go back to “normal”.
Of course the economy being purely a psychological matter the stock market will fall like a ton of bricks, the dollar will fall, and the economic scenario will be dire to say the least. You’re looking at decades worth of recovery if something this serious happens in USA. When Argentina collapsed it was just another country, if a giant like USA collapses it may never get back on its feet and simply be a shadow of what it once used to be from that moment onwards.


What to do tomorrow?

If you’ve been following my blog for some time now you already know the points I constantly insist on such as having food and water, weapons for protection and some cash and precious metals.
Lets say I’m in USA and looking to round up my preps in case of a worst case scenario. What I would do first thing tomorrow would be to drop by my bank and get some of my money out of the account. How much? It depends. If you only have a few thousand bucks or so I’d close my account, then look for a PM dealer near buy and put half of it in gold and silver, keep the rest in cash. If you have more money then maybe just extract 40% or 30% of my money and do the same thing.

Being able to defend yourself being a priority, I’d already have a gun. This would be the time though to get a few more boxes of ammo if the amount you have isn’t adequate. After that I’d fill up my gas tank, take any jerry cans I have and fill those up if they aren’t already full. I’d go to the supermarket and stock up on canned food and water if you haven’t done so already for some reason. I would also buy a good amount of fresh meat and vegetables to consume in the following days. If you don’t have any extra fuel for emergencies, tomorrow would be the day to buy some jerry cans (the equivalent of an extra gas tank) and get those filled up too so as to have two full gas tanks worth of fuel. Use your credit card for buying all this and keep as much cash as possible. It may come in handy later. Drop by the pharmacy and stock up on medications you may need.
If a trip to the bank isn’t possible, at least get as much money as you can out of the ATM. If there’s trouble expect the ATMS to run dry within hours.

Once I’m home again I’d prepare everything security wise in case there’s trouble: No tools left around the house that can be used to break in, lock any exterior buildings like sheds and such, lock any windows that don’t need to be open and in general prepare for the possibility of trouble.
Finally, I’d call my family and loved ones to check on them, tell them what I’ll be doing and ask them what they’ll be doing the next couple of days. You do this so as to have more info in advance, in case there’s civil unrest, you call them to check that they are ok and you don’t find them, when in reality they had planned to be out of town for some other reason.
Basically I’d make the common preparations we talk about and simply stay put if there’s any degree of civil unrest.


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FerFAL