How to Financially Survive an Economic Collapse?

 Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre is the author of “The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse” and “Bugging Out and Relocating: When Staying is not an Option”.

Job security after SHTF?

Hi Ferfal, I'm a big fan of yours, and have recommended your books to a lot of people.

I just took a pretty good job as an auditor with the electric and gas utility (privately owned, not government)about 100 miles north of NYC. Previously, I lived within 20 miles of NYC for my entire life, but it's easy to see what a powder keg that area will become if times get tough, so I made a move.  Can you tell me how stable a job like that proved to be in Argentina when TSHTF? Also, did government workers, who have a high level of perceived job security, actually fair well?

Since you have rated economic instability as the 2nd biggest problem behind security during TSHTF, I think it would be very valuable if you write another book, to provide more detail on common occupations (accountants, nurses, administrators, salespeople etc. etc.) and exactly how they faired in Argentina pre/post crisis. I know you did that in your first book, but it was a little brief.

You input would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,

Joe

Hello Joe, thanks for your support, congratulations on the new job and I’m glad you like my work.

As I wrote in “The ModernSurvival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse”, the job situation gets pretty complicated for everyone when unemployment goes  +%25.
Pretty much everyone is at risk and no one has his job fully warrantied against termination.

As I explained in the book, there are some jobs that are more secure than others, but that still doesn’t mean you couldn’t end up facing serious problems eventually. Take police officers for example. You would think that in a country with such a serious crime problem, law enforcement would be a pretty safe income in spite of how dangerous it many be. Still, police officers have been struggling for years with very low wages and for all practical purposes many are forced to complement their salary with “tips” (bribes) to get by. Something similar happens with teachers and other public workers. They have a job, but condition and pay isnt that good, sometimes its not even enough to live.

As the public services and infrastructure fail, there’s more opportunities for private companies to fill in the gap and these hire people.

In the case of electric companies in Argentina, they have been known to cut costs because of the crisis, letting the grid deteriorate further. This led to rolling blackouts and transformers exploding in summer. The poor power grid situation is widely reported, but little is being done to update the deteriorated infrastructure. Even cell phone signal is rapidly deteriorating. Its already a common local joke to criticize and make fun of the poor signal people often receive.

Like I said in the chapter about employment, its not town blacksmith or ranch hand that are in high demand post economic collapse. The jobs that are in high demand and also happen to pay well at a certain level are marketing and sales. During tough times companies appreciate those that are gifted and manage to land sales.  With a lot of work, small companies do well and this is what many unemployed end up doing once they ran out of options. So as to reinforce your work position you must make yourself very important and valuable to the company. 

The more of a key person you are to the functioning of the company, the less likely you are to lose your job.

I do agree about NYC. I would try to avoid that city as much as possible. About “government workers, who have a high level of perceived job security” some are almost impossible to fire due to the Unions. In general, a desk job for the government, in one of the administrative buildings and halls tends to be pretty secure. The government rarely fires more people when unemployment is already bad.

FerFAL

Jobs and Businesses after an Economic Crisis

Just what the title says. A few ideas and thoughts here and there that you might want to consider. FerFAL

Collapse-Proof Jobs

Hi,
Love the blog and I’ve bought the book. It’s great and I’m convinced that what happened to Argentina is happening to the USA. I’m a young man, looking for a collapse proof career. What happened in Argentina? Were the trades still protected, or do people do their own electrical work, for instance. What happened to doctors and dentists?
Anyway, love to hear back from you, but I understand how busy you must be.
Thanks,
Will

Hi Will, sorry for the delay in replying.
In my book, “The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse”, on page 191 the title reads “Recession-Proof Jobs”. There I describe some of the common jobs to be found after the economic collapse, things such as telemarketers, promoters and sellers in general, or work on the security field, mostly security guard jobs. These of course are far from ideal jobs but it’s the type of thing that shows up with the new idiosyncrasy of the country.  The natural reaction to a crumbled economy is jobs were employers look to sell more just like the obvious outcome of a growing crime problem is an emphasis on security related and crime prevention jobs.

Then there’s the jobs offered by the government. A country that reaches 25% unemployment soon does everything it can to improve such figures and one way of doing that is by creating jobs themselves. As wise or unwise as it may be to depend on such mechanisms so as to drop the unemployment figures, a job is a job, and if you work for the government you usually fare better than in the private sector during this sort of crisis.

The chapter right after “Recession-Proof Jobs” is one called “Making Money”, and there’s were I spend more time explaining the difference between working and making money, which as obvious as the difference should be in some cases that’s what people are really asking when inquiring about post-collapse jobs.

The most commonly found jobs after the collapse don’t pay well at all. To do well financially after this sort of event you have to understand the changes, the new niches the crisis created and capitalize on them. One of the advantages of the post collapse economy is precisely the amount of cheap labor that is the consequence of such high unemployment, therefore working for someone on a job you found on the paper will probably pay low wages.
The entrepreneur will see which institutions failed after the collapse, which needs aren’t being satisfied. From private security so as to compensate for poor police to understanding the new consumers created by the social pyramid shift, their budgets, needs and desires.

Being a plumber or electrician may not be the most profitable job after the collapse. Its true that people become more resourceful and try doing more things themselves to save money. Then again replacing a broken appliance isn’t nearly as affordable as it used to be, so if you a) offer a good repair service for a reasonable, affordable price b) Market and promote your business well, you may be on to something. You’d be surprised by how important marketing and advertising is after an economic collapse. The man that increases sells, he truly has a valuable skill in tough economic times. Doctors and dentists are historically high paying jobs but I know of both that are not doing well economically, while others make very good money. Knowing how to exploit the right angle is again important. What kind of patients to you go after as a dentist? You just get paid by the insurance companies and private health companies, or do you target for a wealthier type of customer that pays out of his own pocket as well? If you’re a heart transplant genius you don’t need much help in terms of making money, but the average doctor and dentist, again, he needs to sell and market his service just like anyone else during hard economic times.

Plastic surgeons for example, they make nice money, in fact, they make more than ever. In what mind does it make sense that people spend more money on breast implants AFTER an economic collapse than before? In no one’s , but it’s the complex reality of such a social change. As society in general becomes poorer, it also becomes… lets say it becomes more corny  and cheap in general. Advertising is reduced to practically naked women with enlarged breasts more than ever before, 90% of TV becomes reality-TV type, full of botox faced personalities that lost all human expression, with no other talent other than making a scene on TV.  Its not only the TV and media, SOCIETY itself becomes this way, and that’s how you explain what previously just didn’t make sense.

It is a pretty complex topic. My advice would be first of all doing and studying what you love. Maybe you don’t even have to go to college depending on what that is. The myth of needing a degree to make money is already dead. While in average a degree gets you 20% more money than not having it, that % is narrowing down each year. Its you and what passion you manage to exploit that makes the difference, what makes you money. Do what you love doing and find an angle to it that in some way satisfies a niche in the market. That would be my advice.
Take care and good luck!

FerFAL
Join the forum discussion on this post

About Farming and Survival

Here’s a short article that puts into words what I think much better than I can.

1930s Farm Life

The Great Depression changed the lives of people who lived and farmed on the Great Plains and in turn, changed America. The government programs that helped them to live through the 1930s changed the future of agriculture forever. Weather touched every part of life in the "Dirty 30s": dust, insects, summer heat and winter cold. York County farm families didn't have heat, light or indoor bathrooms like people who lived in town. Many farm families raised most of their own food – eggs and chickens, milk and beef from their own cows, and vegetables from their gardens. People who grew up during the Depression said, "No one had any money. We were all in the same boat." Neighbors helped each other through hard times, sickness, and accidents. Farm families got together with neighbors at school programs, church dinners, or dances. Children and adults found ways to have fun for free – playing board games, listening to the radio, or going to outdoor movies in town.
When the dryness, heat, and grasshoppers destroyed the crops, farmers were left with no money to buy groceries or make farm payments. Some people lost hope and moved away. Many young men took government jobs building roads and bridges. By 1940, normal rainfall returned, and federal programs helped to boost farm prices and improve the soil. About the same time, a new government program started to hook up farmhouses to electricity, making farm life easier and safer. (read the rest)
http://www.livinghistoryfarm.org/farminginthe30s/life_01.html

Notice that it mentions federal programs. Tax payers money had to be used to save the farmers. That gives you an idea of how profitable and safe the activity is during hard times.

The lesson I learned from my hard working grandparents is that you don’t want to depend exclusively on farming for putting food on the table, paying the bills, paying for your health insurance, heat, etc.

When my grandparents lived in Spain, my grandma’s family farmed for a living. Buying a few liters of oil, flour, the things they didn’t produce meant they had to sell a lot of what they produced to afford them. It was extremely hard work for little profit in terms of both food and purchasing power. My grandma became a teacher and soon started with classes, traveling through the small towns nearby, teaching in the houses where a few neighbors would gather. She got paid with food and some money. In those days it was a bit of an honor to host the teacher, she generally went to the wealthiest, biggest home in town where more neighboring children would fit for the class. My grandfather made a better living because instead of farmer he was a good carpenter, made good roofs which were much appreciated and sought after, and he got paid well for his work. That provided him with a better income and a better quality of life in general as well. When he came to Argentina they didn’t buy land to farm. My grandma opened a small bakery that soon became pretty successful and my grandfather opened a carpentry shop that went well too, soon had a workshop that occupied half a block. They had a house with an orchard and chickens but my grandmother said she’d never go back to farming. 

Unless you have several hundreds or thousands of acres and make an important amount of profit, farming really isn’t that safe an occupation. Like the article above explains, many farmers lost their land during the great depression because of this, were forced to take other jobs and so on. Basically its the same old story in USA, Spain during the civil war and my country too.

Meanwhile there’s resourceful people that find ways of making lots of money during hard times like these, while at the same time creating job opportunities for others in need as well. I think that’s just as honorable a profession as working the land. You get to make money and give jobs to other families as well.

The way I see it, producing food in most cases should be combined with a more profitable, safer occupations if possible. That’s why I’d rather have a small orchard, some fruit trees and small animals, but no more than that and certainly not make it a full time job.

Another thing that I think is important to mention regarding farming and survival is that such an activity basically pins you to your location. Emigrating like some Jews did when they saw what was coming, how my grandparents did during the Spanish civil war or how my own parents, brothers (and I’ll do as well) after the 2001 crisis would be much harder if not downright impossible if you depend entirely on your land for your survival. You need enough money to start over and you’ll have to get some other kind of job. Most immigrants worked in factories and today its not that different. People emigrating abroad usually end up with a 9 to 5 job and you’re much better off if you have a profession that allows you to do that more easily. In my grandfather’s time it was carpentry, for my old man, my brothers and myself it’s a degree (architecture, accountant) and above all, fluidly knowing a second language. A degree and being fluent in English and Spanish means that pretty much you can find a job in half the countries round the globe. That’s what I think is the smartest thing to do, and the more adaptable survival strategy. 

I certainly have nothing against farming. I just see to many weak spots from a strategic survival point of view. I thinks it’s a honorable way of life, my grandparents on both sides of the family farmed and even today we have relatives that keep living and farming in the same town they did 200 years ago. I’ve visited them. I would not want to switch places with them and I know perfectly well that their situation is much more vulnerable from a survival point of view because of what I mentioned above: a) little income therefore little flexibility and less money to acquire resources b) they are pinned to their location and leaving would be much harder. Natural or man made disasters that affect their location will have a direct impact on their lives, losing their source of sustainability.

YMMV of course, just my opinion on the subject and all that.

FerFAL

Cutting of police forces in USA and job observations‏

First off, the cutting of police forces:

http://www.kcra.com/news/23167334/detail.html

Sacramento has a large "conurbano" that has no other government other
than county supervisors, and no other police other than sheriff's
deputies. It's unincorporated, IOW. We call it "The Uncity". Well, life
in The Uncity is about to get a whole lot more dangerous when the
sheriff's office stops patrolling it! If you call them, they won't come.
There will be no more patrols. This is "hypothetical" now, but it's
about to become real. This means that the only real policing will be in
Sacramento city, Folsom, and Galt, since Citrus Heights, Elk Grove, and
Rancho Cordova rely on the sheriff. Free rein for criminals in the
American zonas liberadas. Many other municipalities are doing the same
thing.

Now for the job observations:

As you know, I repair computers. And as GTA regulars know, the market in
my city is flooded with former IT guys who can't find work, so they do
virus removals, meaning I can't get any work. Well, now I've noticed a
LOT of computer repair shops opening up, in seedy shopping centers in
rundown suburbs like North Highlands and Citrus Heights. First it was
Craigslist being flooded with ads, now this. Apparently these out of
work repair guys are taking the last of their savings and renting
rundown shop space-Sacramento and California is WAY glutted with retail
space-in a last ditch push to make some money and stave off ruin. But
shop space is expensive, even at a few dollars a square foot. I'm
betting that they will run out of money before getting business, since
they seem to be doing little real advertising, and the business that
they do get in these bad areas won't be worth it. So eventually, they'll
all disappear. What's your experience with this in Argentina the first
few years after the collapse? Did lots of small shops open up and then
close as their proprietors ran out of money?

Loquisimo

Hi Loqusimo, I remember tlaking aobut this with you at GTA forums some time ago.
Your observations are correct, and yes, it did happen like that here too.
Many of these stores and little shops poped up after the crisis and they tried to make a living. Some were more succesful than others.
When we talked about it back then I told you its important to be good at marketing, make contacts, advertize, and have a good relationship with clients. Try offering various serivces with stepping into things you have no experitize of, offer different packages for you clients, discounts, etc.
I'd say 8 out of 10 of these business failed in the first, year.The ones that did well made a good living after that.

FerFAL

The 12 consequences of unemployment

So we talked about unemployment but what about the not so often discussed consequences.
Unemployment is bad enough, but what really changes the world around you for decades will be the consequences of such a situation, if high unemployment perpetuates itself enough to cause serious damage like it did here and in other countries.

More poverty

Of course. Should be obvious enough but something most people don’t think of is where these poor are coming from. During an economic crisis and with +20% unemployment, those new poor are you. It’s the middle class society, the large social cushion that keeps good life standards in 1rst world countries. We’re talking about you, your family, friends and neighbors, people from your social circle. They can no longer afford to live in the kind of places they did, can no longer the car they used to have, the medical care.

Crime

Less jobs means more desperate people looking to survive and while the majority of people are overall good guys, desperate people do desperate things and the smaller percentage of bad people still exists.
As times get worse, more and more people get involved in criminal activity of all kinds to survive. The worst kind is of course violent crime such as armed robbery, kidnapping and murder.

Hatred

Remember those ex middle class folks? They are people, and the mass psychology involved here is pretty complex. Why am I poor? Why does that guy have what I’ll clearly never will?
The misery creates an entire population of young adults and teens that simply hate they lives, hate themselves and have no hope in the future whatsoever. And believe me its MUCH worse than the bleeding heart rap BS you may already be familiar with. Its totally different when there really is no hope in the horizon, and you understand you may not live long enough to see a positive change.
This means there’s not just more crime, the hate combined with such crime is the worst part. 12 year old kids thinking its much easier to pick a corpse clean so they just shoot you without remorse. Armed robbers rapping the victims during home robbery, torturing them in other way too.
We’ve never seen such hatred towards senior citizens either. They just trick them into opening the door and brutally beat them to death.
We’ve never seen such a predisposition to shoot the victim just because, simply for a pair of shoes or 20 pesos.

More drugs

Along with the social degradation comes drugs. No hope, more drugs. Its also good business for many so its understandable that a large amount of people find drugs and drug dealing as a mean to make money during the crisis.
There’s sure going to be more than enough customers.

Corruption

Here its kind of accepted that cops ask for bribes whenever they can because salaries are too low.
The problem isn’t just dirty cops, the problem is that corruption becomes socially accepted and spreads like a cancer.
Corrupt cops, corrupt politicians, judges gov. officials. It get to the point where you have national Senator Luis Barrionuevo with his infamous quote: “If we stop stealing for 2 years, we solve every problem this country has.” Notice he includes himself in the quote.
http://www.elojodigital.com/politica/2009/07/21/1688.html

More suicides

It happened often enough, I remember cursing them for ruining my day. ”Cant they kill themselves any other way? At least don’t choose rush hour to jump under the damn train!” Ashamed to admit so but you eventually lose a bit of sensitivity when it happens often enough.
During the worst of the crisis you would have 2 or 3 suicides in Roca railroad branch alone. For some reason they usually did it early in the morning, maybe a desperate attempt to attract some attention in their final moment.
Don’t remember the exact percentage but suicides had gone up significantly along with phobias, stress and mental disorders.

Spreading of cults and pseudo religions

Seems silly but the more desperate people are, the more willing they are to believe in false idols or pagan rituals no one sane would believe.
Umbanda churches became terribly prolific along with a huge variety of cults.
People still believe in this, they have their witch or pai that does “jobs” for them, mostly for money, love and revenge.

More prostitution

The oldest trade in the world they say. The amount of prostitutes increases significantly.
There’s also more perversion as well: More transvestites, more pedophilia and “white” slavery: Girls, even children getting kidnapped, moved to some far away province and forced into prostitution in some brothel.

More gambling

Gambling has gone up from 500% to 800%, heard that on the news a couple days ago.
I know, makes no sense that people have even less and waste more. Well, again, its complex. People become more desperate and do more stupid things, and it goes along well with the general social decadency: More gambling, more drugs, more prostitution.
This isn’t some “big city” problem either. It occurs and becomes evident in small downs as well. As a matter of fact, most brothels where kidnapped girls end up are usually in small towns with the complicity of local police.

More diseases

Poverty means less people have access to medical care, have enough heat at home to stay healthy during the winter, have no money for repairs at home or have no home entirely.
Less money for proper hygiene, and the poor education means the population has less knowledge on common sanitation measure too.
All this means that diseases and viruses, everything form Dengue to flu, along with sexual transmitted diseases, it all spreads easier now.

Less education

Why even study if you’re ever going to get to college? Why study if you’re going to end up a criminal anyway?
Add to that the amount of good kids that have to stop going to school to work either as “cartoneros”(paper and cardboard scavengers), or on the fields in the country. The parents don’t make enough money so they have to work too to put food on the table.

Lower life standards

This entire situation means there’s social degradation, social decadency in all aspects of life.
Even if you do make a better living, manage to have better finances, the world you live in is still the same.
The more money you have the more you can isolate yourself by moving to gated communities, guards, even bodyguards and armored vehicles if you have the money for it.
All that does not change the fact that the rest of the country is very different from your personal bubble.


These are the medium and long term consequences of the crisis.
Some may become more evident than others, some may not develop as much, but there's no other way, these are things that will happen to a greater or lesser degree and have an impact on everyone's life.

FerFAL

The most likely SHTF Event

Yet the one most survivalists never prepared for.
Other than health issues, losing your job and being left unemployed either permanently or for long periods of time is something many people, even survivalists, never envisioned.

A couple years ago, for many, if you didn’t have a job it was because you didn’t want it bad enough. When I first started posting back in 2002, many comments were of that kind.
Now things have changed some, and I’ve read aobut lots people of people in survival and prep forums that are in that same situation. People of all ages, many with good skills and years of experience (some of those SHTF proof trades as well) there’s just no job to be found!

1 Problem

Food & water. This is the one many preppers have covered because of their importance. Its becoming a common theme in the forums, people losing their jobs and digging into their preps to get buy when money is short. 6-12 months worth of food is a wise idea. Means that you at least have that much time in which you know you’ll be able to put food on the table. Much easier to sleep having that safety net.
Now, 99.9% of the people (and I’m sure I’m being optimistic) do not have even a single month worth of food stocked for emergencies.
No money + no food cache = You’ll be begging for food or eating out of a dumpster in less than a week.
Now that’s something we’ve seen lots of and still do.
I’ve seen some messed up things like many

2 Problem

Shelter. People simply losing their homes because they can’t keep up with the payments is another common problem. We didn’t have much in the way of house loans to begin with, so even if people did lose their homes here too, it wasn’t as common as it is in USA these days.

So much for the problem, what’s the solution? Here, and in other palces and other times as well as right now, family usually help. Young adults moving back to the parents house, or several adults, the family along with a couple uncles and grandparents, all chipping in to pay for the roof.

When you don’t have that, the need for some sort of shelter becomes more primal. A tent isn’t much of a home but it is better than nothing… for a couple days. The camper or motor home feels much more like a home and there are lots of people that get by for medium or long periods time in one of them. Of course its, safer and more solid, and for your moral its miles away from crawling into a small camping tent. Heck, there’s even people that liver permanently in their motor homes or campers. There’s this travel journalist lady, she travels all over and keeps a blog, so her lifestyle is also her source of income, which leads us to problem 3.

3 Problem

The job just doesn’t appear. You keep looking, you have your experience, buy the paper, search on line but there’s just no job to be found.
Because of age, because of to much offer, you have to seriously consider that if you don’t create your own job you wont have any.
We’ve talked about this before. Someone emailed me a couple days ago when I said you don’t compete with Budwiser and Marlboro after a crisis. “Hey FerFAL, you said we have to start our own jobs and now you say this…”

Well of course. Last time I heard 75% of the new business fail the first year. Trying to compete with a well established firm is a sure ticket for that.
Use the search engine and read the posts related to home business and making money. Replacing the failing institution, finding out the new niches, personalized service, good marketing. That’s what people did here and in other places. Not starting your own liquor firm because you’re making moonshine in the back yard.

You know what people will think? Same thing everyone with an ounce of brain would: Risk my health, risk spending thousands of dollars to save a couple cents, thanks but no thanks, I’ll buy the brand name. Don’t try to compete with multibillion dollar firms people, that should be obvious enough and no, they wont disappear. Ever.

FerFAL

Tips for job interviews during the Economic crisis.

Even though being self employed and running your own business is usually best regarding you managing your own schedules and you creating and being responsible for you own income source, the fact is that most people work more tradition jobs.
When there’s +20% unemployment things change a lot regarding job hunting and interviews.

I remember when traveling to Spain a few years ago when things were very different, the thing at that time in Spain and other EU countries was to actually mess up the job interviews so you could continue on the “paro”, the welfare program that paid you 80% of your last job while unemployed.
Things were the exact opposite here and I thought how crazy it all was, how most people here would do anything for a job while over there jobs were something you just found quickly if you wanted to.



When there’s a line of 20 or 30 people for even the lowest paying gigs, and hundreds for anything better, you need to be at the top of your game:

1) Looks. Yes, its supposedly ok to be yourself but you know what, “supposedly” wont find a job any time soon during a recession. Look you best. You can complain about discrimination all you want, but being covered in tattoos, specially that daemon eating a unicorn in your forehead, yes, I’m sure they’ll find a good explanation as of why other candidates make more sense than you.
Urban tribe hairstyle or clothes, lots of piercings, none of that is going to do you any favors when looking for a job.
Clean cut, formal or casual clothes depending on the work you are applying for, that creates the right image.

2)Handshake and speech. A firm handshake, but not bone crushing, you want to show confidence, not how physically strong you are. Leveled voice, but confident. The way you stand, sit and carry yourself in general, try looking confident an capable. All this you probably heard a thousand times already, but it is harder to do when you’ve been unemployed for a while and your actually are nervous and worried about finding a job soon to put food on the table.

3)Information. Know the names of the people you’re supposed to see for the interview, do a bit of research about the firm, be informed about the products offered or whatever it is they do, what you find interesting about it and share that with the person that is interviewing you. How you would fit in the company and what you have to offer.

4) Attitude. During a job interview I had once for an architecture firm, they asked me if I knew how to handle a certain software program which they were starting to use with good results. I wasn’t familiar with the software but I replied “No, I’ve never used that one before but I’m sure I can learn it pretty quick, most of them have similar functions and logic about them, I’m sure I’ll get the hang of it in no time”.

I got that job and when they told me I was hired, they said they specially liked that part. It’s important for the people that are hiring you to know you wont be a problem but rather a problem solver. Not only regarding a computer program but in general terms, they see in you someone that fixes things, learns when needed and simply gets things sorted out and done.

5)Go through your notes and files. For technical jobs it would be a good idea to review some of the information you’re supposed to be acquainted with. You can’t remember everything and even if the job interviewing process doesn’t specifically require tests (like some do) its still a good idea to refresh those concepts so you have better tools for the interview.

6) Salary. Ask 20% more than what you consider an appropriate salary. Don’t think about this much, don’t do the same stupid mistake I made several times myself. Simply always ask for 20% more.
If the employer likes you but for some reason can’t reach that number, he’ll come up with a counteroffer, so don’t worry. You’re not going to miss the opportunity because of that 20% extra you asked for.

If you settle with 10% more as a half way through, you have 10% more and the employer considers he got a bit of a bargain himself. If you ask for a salary that is too low, that’s much worse than asking for more. It reflects a lack of confidence or worse, it clearly says you are not worth more than that.

7) Follow up. Some people don’t advice this but I’ve called a few days later on occasions to check if there’s any news, how’s the selection process is going and show my interest.
On occasions you get the “don’t call us, we’ll call you” on the same interview, and in that’s the case it’s all pretty clear but on other occasions you have a good interview and yet don’t receive any news a few days later. In that case, I’d call to see how things are going.
Just one call guys, one call shows you sure are interested. If after that call they still don’t contact you, that’s it, but sometimes calling is a good idea.

FerFAL

Post-crash white collar businesses?

Dear Fernando,

First, thank you for publishing your book. It was worth every penny. I will recommend it to select family and friends.

I seek your advice on the best post-crash, white collar businesses. I am a technical writer and trainer, specializing in software. I have a day job as a software training manager.

I have a side job writing technical books. I don't get rich from them, but they take the place of my wife's salary, now that she is a stay-at-home mom.

I am concerned that after the dollar has crashed (notice I am saying "when" and not "if"), that these types of books will not sell as well. My market is worldwide, but most of the sales come from the USA. Also, you can't really grow a business by being a solo author. To really grow, you need other people working for you. This rather lengthy introduction brings me to my question:

In your experience, after the crash in Argentina, were there any kinds of consulting or teaching services that businesses suddenly needed (and were willing to pay for), to help them survive the new economic conditions?

At this point, I'm really trying to decide between writing more books, and just letting the books go and switching to a consulting or training business. I'm thinking specifically of a company that would offer consulting and training in:

• Using Moodle for e-learning. This is the subject of two of my books.
• Dealing with information overload. How to be a more productive knowledge worker.
• Using open source software for small-to-medium size businesses. Office applications, human resources management, accounting, customer relationships, social media for sales and marketing.
  

Was there any demand for these kinds of business services and training in post-crash Argentina? I'm trying to imagine the kind of consulting or training that a company will need in these difficult times to stay in business. Something targeted specifically towards the message, "Times are tough and if you want to stay in business, we can help by teaching you how to_____." It's that blank line that I'm having trouble filling in.

Thank you again for your book, and your blog. I very much value your advice and hope that you can give me a little insight to help me plan for my family's future.

Regards,
William

Hi William. You seem to be on the right track. Please note I’m not into finances, all I can give you is my humble advice based on what I’ve seen.

As you probably read in my book, if I recommend for example, starting a daycare center or even a private school later on, its because I’ve seen it done successfully enough times that it makes me notice that.

You know who fails after an economic crisis/collapse? Those that freeze and fail to act, those that stay the same waiting for things to go back to be the way they were. To get through it you need to understand a few things.

First, the rules of engagement have changed. You can no longer expect the old ones to apply, you can’t expect people to react as they did, they way they used to spend money, they way people and companies didn’t research each product or service in detail. You need a good product/service AND good marketing.

And second, investigate and understand that new market. Discover the new niches.

As time goes by, I firmly believe that there’s a new, post crisis niche out there for every activity, every line of work you can think of.

Teachers for example, for years it has been a poorly paid job and still is. Yet a teacher that finds his way into a nicer, bilingual school will do better, and in some they can send their own kids for free or considerable discounts. It’s no longer just the salary, you save on school payments as well.

Hey, I used to work on telemarketing. English speaking employees got paid twice as much as those that did it in Spanish. Same job, twice the salary because you have more tools than the other guy.

While musicians do poorly, there’s a local kindergarten teacher here that has a nice voice and is good enough with a guitar, so she recorded CDs for babies and small children, made contacts with stores that sell baby clothes… so that these stores would play her music, and offer the CDs for sale as well. As far as I know she’s now got a big contract and is selling her music in every Spanish speaking country, including Spain.

Being able to sell world wide is an advantage, you can maybe aim for UK market, learn what’s getting done there, what programs they are using. Working from the USA and getting paid on Euros would be nice.

There’s more than enough people in Argentina that saved their business by doing partnerships with companies form abroad, selling services to US and Europe.

Again, if there’s an economic collapse, you’re already ½ way there William.

When unemployment became rampant, no one was selling anything, the first few months you could see the economy was totally frozen.

I kid you not people wouldn’t hire the neighborhood’s kid to paint a fence, no one wanted to spend a single buck.

After a few months when things calmed down after the initial shock, those getting laid off or getting their salaries cut to half, they all wanted to go independent.

Being already self employed, even though partially, already gives you an edge the guy that did the 9 to 5 thing all his life doesn’t have and is suddenly attempting to swim in unknown waters.

I have no knowledge of your line of work, but I’d orient it to that new guy, the guy that lost his job recently, or the one that is smelling the coffee, knowing that even though he still has a job he could be the next one.

There’s millions of unemployed right now. What do you think they are doing? Their trying to get busy! What programs would they need, which ones are sought after?

Again, not my thing but for example, classes, and courses that taught CAD and design programs suddenly became more popular. Many studios were doing jobs for abroad as I mentioned before, and they needed to hire workers. Who were they going to hire? Young kids who they could pay less of course. Those young adults (or unemployed older ones) needed some formation.

Another example. As prices for import goods goes up, local production gets more attention. That means more local machinery being build, and software for CNC machines and workers is required.

Your own question has the key to the answer: help them survive the new economic conditions.

Whatever it is you offer:

*It must be useful. Worth the little money people and companies now have. Before, they would through money at anything, just in case. Heck, people would even sign up for classes or courses and not even show up. Not any more.

*The potential benefits your consulting or teaching business offers must be clear to see and understand. Example. If you pick the newspaper and ½ of the design related jobs are asking for people that know 3D Studio, anyone with half a brain will get it that after he/she takes your course, they are ready for a line of work in demand.

Buying books or training, they can both be profitable for you. Personally, in your situation, I’m slightly inclined to exploiting the training opportunities if you enjoy that more than writing.

Writing for an emerging market can work ok, but I’d satisfy the need for training for the new employment challenges. Explore the aspects of the new jobs on demand, what kind of training they are requiring.

The unemployed guy reads you ad, an article or finds your website or reads about you at the local paper. Will he have better tools to compete on the job market if he receives your training? Will a struggling company become ready for the harder times thanks to your consulting?

Diversify, maximize resources, reach clients abroad/worldwide, minimize cost, cut unnescesary expenses, multitask your employees. These are all words that could fill in your blank.

I hope I at least gave you a few more things to think about and consider.

Take care.

FerFAL

RE: Long time prepper needs advise

Thanks Fernando!

I'll get rid of the DoomerSteve and just go with Steve :)

Feel free to place my reply on the blog. I hope others can find it useful.

Thank you Ferfal and the other posters for your advise. I'll elaborate a bit more but I am paranoid about OPSEC to give away too much information.

I have been in business for 15 years full time and another 10 prior to that working for other people. I am in an entertainment related industry and my biggest problem and the source of most of my stress is managing my employees. The people I need with the required skill set are hard to find and the available pool is quite small. It takes a long time to train someone to the standards I require to keep my customers happy. I used to love this business, but the years of dealing with unreliable people are taking their toll. Recently I have had to fire 4 employees, two of them for theft and one of them had been with me over 10 years and a friend for 15. Every week there is one issue or another, lateness, lost or damaged equipment etc. The last two years have been brutal with staff. I am chronically short staffed now and doing a lot of the work myself. The old adage is absolutely true sometimes... if you want a job done right you have to do it. The problem with that is I work 60-80 hours a week to do it and I am truly burnt out.

I have taken steps to downsize... I guess part of that 80/20 stuff you spoke of. Trying to stay focused in the business I can do myself and make the most money on, while trying to reduce my dependency on other unreliable people. I've gotten rid of equipment I rarely used and lowered my overall expenses. I am training new staff and in the process of tightening up control over inventory and improving efficiency through better checks and balances. It is taking time and I guess I just have to suck it up for a while longer.

I do have a good reputation and people do business with me because I do good work for a reasonable price and no matter what happens I do what I say I am going to do. If I make a mistake I make it right. End of story. People know this. This possible new owner will most likely just take what customers they can keep and sell off my equipment. They have done this with several failed companies. In my case they will be just buying a competitor just to get rid of me.

I believe most of my problem is my perspective. I have had such a long run of bad luck that I am looking at everything is a very negative light. Only seeing the bad. I need to find the time to step away for a while, but it has been hard to find. I had a nice two week vacation planned but it was cut short because I injured myself on the first day, recovery took up most of the vacation and I only managed to get away for a few days. I am so desperate to get away from it for a while that I have been seriously considering just dumping it so I can run away for a while. You are all right, it would be a mistake. My wife has been telling me this for weeks but she also says she will support any decision I make. My wife has been my biggest asset.... she is an incredible woman. I need to focus so much more on the good things I have, as they are many. I have to get out of this mental rut I am in. I just don't know how.

Steve

Steve, a non-lethal dose of paranoia makes us survivalists.:)
Maybe you need to hire the services of a good human resources company to help you target the kind of employees you need. Might be worth the cost.
But it sounds like you'll do ok. ;-)

Fernando

Traveling repairmen and SHTF situations

Hi Fernando,

I recently opened my own business as a computer repairman, working out
of my home. What I do is go out to people's houses and work on their
computers at their houses, mostly cleaning off viruses and such. I have
been thinking a lot about how I would operate in a SHTF scenario in
America, and the best I can come up with is to leave the really
expensive stuff I carry, such as a portable USB hard drive for file
transfers and a tool kit, in the car and just come to the person's door
with my CD case, unless I've determined over the phone that the other
stuff will be needed. I can always run out to the car and get the other
stuff later.

There probably aren't many people with computers in Argentina, but how
do people like plumbers and electricians who have to work at people's
houses try to avoid getting knifed for their tools? I would think that
there's always the possibility of being called out on a fake job just so
they can rob you. I try not to carry cash for that reason. So far in the
month or two I've been operating it hasn't been an issue, but things
aren't too bad here quite yet. Probably within a couple years things
will start to get really bad.

As an aside, I've been noticing lots of ads looking to buy gold here in
America, a sure sign that things are going downhill. It seems that every
city now has a number of casas de cambio that buy gold and silver,
although they're so new here that there isn't really a word in the
language for them yet. Many times they masquerade as places to buy fresh
water since the tap water is going downhill, but inside there will be a
cambio. They will have a few little knickknacks on display in the front
window to fool robbers, but they're cambios and not gift shops or water
dispensaries or whatever.

Pezar

Hi!
There’s a lot of people with computers here, and what you’re working on is a good idea. Many PC repair guys work in a similar manner here, going out to get the client instead of sitting in their stores complaining there’s no work. Well done!
Computers here are expensive but used older ones are cheaper and lower middle class folks can still buy an oldie. It’s good enough to get on line, use Word or Excell, and there’s some free dial up available last time I checked.
Some of the older PCs used in public buildings are real dinosaurs, but computers are popular here just like anywhere else. Argentina is still a modern country, in spite of everything.

I wouldn’t leave things in the car, you’ll get a window smashed and your stuff robbed (unless you keep it in the trunk, but still).
Try not using expensive gear unless you have to, the minimum amount needed to do the job, and keep everything organized and in sight.
One thing they do here, check the type of neighborhood you’re visiting first. Here, they sometimes come up with an excuse if the place is known to be too dangerous to risk it. Better to just say no, think of a couple excuses to come up with.

The “I buy gold” places. Yes, those popped up here after the 2001 crisis too. A sign to keep in mind for sure, of things to come.
Same here, small kiosks with pens, or candy stores can be found downtown, but their real business is currency exchange. The ones buying and selling precious metals are usually stamps and coins shops that found a new market.

FerFAL

Recession proof jobs.

Ferfal,

I have the opportunity to work for a private security firm and I was wondering if you could comment on how these orgs operate in your area and if you believe this type of employment is “recession-proof.” Thank you.

Chris

Here they operate in ways I don’t see happening in USA: They usually exploit the guards to the limit, taking advantage of the overall poverty an unemployment.
But I don’t see that happening in USA, and yes, private security was listed rather high in my book as a recession proof job. Crime will only go up and the demand for private security will keep growing.
If that’s what you want to do for the long run, work there for some time, learn the business and when you can, start your own firm. That’s where the good money is.
Working for the government on its various forms is also pretty solid since the government can’t afford to leave people unemployed and will likely do everything they can to keep them with a job. (military, medical field, teachers, etc)
If things get really bad, you just don’t make money working for someone else, with +20% unemployment, there’s always going to be someone skilled enough, and yet willing to do your job for less.
Both blue and white collar workers learned that the hard way in Argentina.
If things are that bad, you want to either work for a firm you are positive they just can’t do without you, one you know isn’t likely to fire you (government) or start your own business related to your line of work and be independent (this isn’t for everyone).
Someone asked me once if jail guard was a solid recession job. Of course it is! One thing you can be sure of is that there will be more criminals to be locked away. Argentina’s prison population is overpopulated by 300-400% in some cases 500%. They had to start building more prisons, even locking them in containers, used as improvised cells.

FerFAL

Making money after the crisis

I’ve been asked this a couple times and guess it’s time to go through a few things again.
I’m not even going to talk much about jobs specifically.
People will ask “what jobs”, but that’s not really what they want to know. They want to know how to make money to get by.
Problem is making money and working isn’t always related. As a matter of fact most people that have a LOT of money work relatively little. Just like a lot of people that work VERY hard ALL day many times barely make enough money to survive.
You want me to tell you what jobs you’ll be more likely to find after a crisis? Easy.
Security.

I can open the newspaper on the couple pages with job adds, drop my finger with my eyes closed and I can bet good money my super divination powers will tell me what that add is about.

I can even use my prophetic powers and tell you many of the words you’ll find in the add.:)
Serious, it’s a mathematic fact, since 50% job offers are the same:
Male, 1,75 height minimum, school diploma, CLU (gun license card)

Private security job offers are BY FAR, the most common adds you’ll find in Argentina or in any country that’s gone through a crisis.

Second most popular add is for the ladies. Would read something like this:
Young lady, excellent presence. Age 18-25. No Prior experience required. Full body photo required.

What’s this about? They want hot looking women for promotions and events.
When unemployment is so high, it’s been proved that hot looking women advertising and giving away pamphlets works. Usually its too expensive. But with a crisis you’ll have girls that look like models begging for work. With high unemployment they can afford to audition lots of them.
Then, there’s the ever popular telemarketer..
These are jobs you can probably get during the recession.
Salary? Well, they’ll border slavery. And the private guard gig is as dangerous as swimming with starved crocodiles.

Hmmm.. how about changing the question then? :)
How do I “make” money?
Now we’re getting somewhere.
I have no secret that will make you rich. What I can tell you is what I’ve seen others do that worked well for them.
There are several fronts from where you can attack the problem.

a)Do what you love doing/ What you are good at.

This is always recommended but people hardly listen. Parents and grandparents usually recommend it, but why?
Because it works. Because when you do something passionately you usually do it well, thus greater chances of making money.

Go to college or community college, or learn some craft.
Doesn’t matter if you are a doctor, lawyer or carpenter. Some lines of work do better than others during recession, but if you are good at it your chances are good.

Contrary to what many believe, when there’s really high unemployment, more people go study and hit the books. Why? Because there’s no job and it’s better than staying home depressed.

Then again, in some cases just being very good at something simply isn’t enough. Sometimes even if you are good, even the best, the economic crisis will hit you and hit you hard.
Blacksmithing for example. Many survivalists thought blacksmithing for some reason would be in high demand.
Why are the best blacksmiths in the country doing so poorly then?
Want to know why?
Because I don’t “need” a fancy handmade blade, certainly not when money is tight. If I need a knife I can buy one in a store for a fraction f the money and it will still serve me well.
Besides, competition is fierce due to unemployment, even among blacksmiths. The more competitive, the more they have to lower the prices.
Today I can buy a handmade knife rather cheap.
The handful that refuse to see these and still sell knives at several hundred bucks hardly stay afloat with thanks to a few high end customers, most of them from abroad. As the crisis spreads all over I fear they’ll be doing even worse.

b)Satisfy an unsatisfied niche.
This is where many have made real fortunes THANKS to the depression. I’m talking about a lot of money in some cases.
The cases I’ll mention are ones that I know of and that have had lots of success precisely because they satisfy a new need created by the crisis.

These aren’t my “guesses” or “estimations”. These are real people doing very real money.

1)Transportation business.
Owning a bus line is very good business. There’s more poor, fuel is more expensive, thus, there’s more need for public transportation.
Doesn’t take a genius to figure out why bus companies are making nice money here these days.
“But FerFAL, I’m not Bill Gates, I can’t afford this BS your talking about”
Well, that happened to some people here too. But they didn’t cry a river because they didn’t have that kind of capital.
What they did was offer another alternative: Combies.
For 5 bucks, this guy takes a bunch of people in his minibus from suburbia to downtown to work, everyday.
Pay another 5 bucks and they drive you back to suburbia at the end of the day.
It’s a bit more expensive than the ordinary bus but it’s faster, you travel seated, doesn’t smell like urine, and has working AC, and it’s still ½ the price of the fuel you’d need to do that trip with your own car.
These guys started with one or two minibus, then added more, hired drivers. Then started selling the “brand” people with their own buses using the brand name and logistics, for a fair %, of course.
Now that’s smart. That’s learning to exploit the needs of the new market. Give the economy Nobel prize to the guys that came up with “Lomas Express” and “Adrogue Bus”.


2)Security.
I’ve said it a million times. Private security will be the greatest gig once crime goes up.
If you want, becoming a cop will be an alternative given that USA cops are well paid and there’s WILL be a growing demand for them.
But for those with the vision, a private security company can mean a lot of money.
Offering security to some high end neighborhood. You set a guy on a few strategic corners.
It’s obvious that if you are getting paid by say, 3 blocks, and you only set guards on those 3 places, criminals will start hunting out of the “guarded” territory. Soon the word gets around and they’ll want a guard of their own to keep an eye on things.
Be serious, be professional, and as crime goes up a private security company will be a good money maker for you.

3)Education.
As public education goes down and the O indoctrination gets worse, you’ll want better education for your kids. Mom can’t afford to home school any more, she has to work now. As salaries keep going down, due to cuts or indirectly due to inflation, both parents working becomes more and more common.
A respectable neighbor that parents trusts can set up a private school. One that’s not expensive but offers good atmosphere and a good education level.
I’ve seen it done a number of times, and know of several people that did very well with their schools or daycare centers. (mom has to work, remember?)
This would fall both in the “market need” and “things you love doing” category, since making a school and teaching has to be something you love doing. Do it just for the money and chances are you wont be good at it.

4)Lending money.
There’s no credit, so lending a little money (usually 1000 or 2000 tops) is a good deal for some people.
The greatest problem here is that you need some “muscle” that will collect those that want to get off the hook. So this can be a bit “grayish”. Either that or have a collector’s company that are real sharks. Anyway, lots of new places lending money, so I guess it’s good business.

5)Home business.
This is a bit more tricky and I probably know more failure stories than success ones.
Starting a business during a recession is “risky” to say the least.

Some things are almost certain failures.

A computer shop that just sells hardware and software and assembles PC and offers network and repair service has a poor success rate.
During a recession people buy very little, they try to save as much money as possible, usually take the time and trouble to learn how to assemble stuff themselves.
The one or two successful hardware dealers that I know of operate with HUGE volumes of merchandize, and offer VERY low prices and publicize on line.
These are businesses that required capital, lots of “know how”, import contacts, and certainly not for amateurs. Try opening the friendly computer shop on your own and more than likely you’ll fail.
Small shops in general do poorly during recessions.
Video rental stores for example, they’ve closed by the hundreds and few survive.
People have little money and prefer to download the movies themselves to safe a few bucks. Before they didn’t care, but when money gets tight they do.
Running your own business requires a deep knowledge of the niche and market if you want to have any chance of success.

For example, I know a guy that made a good business with clothes.
He knew the are well, knew that there was still some people with money, middle class, but a middle class less powerful than before.
They couldn’t afford the fancy brand name clothing they once did, but he expected to do well if he offered good clothing, nice fashionable designs, but at an affordable price. The store had to look a mixture of cozy and high end, and a designer was required for the store, a professional graphic designer for the advertisement displayed and labels used in the clothing. This was how the “Snowball” brand was created. He ended up opening over a dozen stores in the southern suburbs of Bs As.
Need a present for someone? Most of the time women do the buying, and most of the time they buy clothes. Snowball is affordable and people like it.

There are many, many other stories and niches that were exploited.

These are just a few business ideas to think about.
Think how you can make money in your region by satisfying the new niches being created by the economic crisis.


FerFAL