A man walks past a building damaged in recent shelling in Donetsk's Kyivskiy district, near the airport, on October 7.
There’s
nothing like survival knowledge gained from real disaster accounts. The
following letters from survivors in Ukraine are full of such gems. In
some cases it may sound anecdotal, in others it may be specific to that
particular place and time, but “this actually happened” is always more
valuable than speculations. The following testimonies are published by RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service. http://www.rferl.org I
added some of my own thoughts and observations. I hope you learn
something from it and as always comments are always welcomed. …
Mykhaylo Vasilyev, pensioner Luhansk
Luhansk used to be poetically called "the city of fountains and roses."
Now it is the city of downcast faces. Sad, downcast, emaciated. And
very tired -- tired of having no money, mass unemployment, poverty and
damaged homes, constant problems with electricity, water, heating, and
telephones. But most of all, tired from the loss of hope.
There are
downcast faces everywhere. On the streets, in the half-empty stores and
various offices, in the remaining markets. A smile in Luhansk has become
a rare thing, like a dandelion in winter. Smiles remain together with
the interrupted peace -- in the past, in our memories.
FerFAL
Comment: In most disasters that I have researched over the years,
especially long term ones, having enough money helped greatly. Paying
for food at inflated prices, bribing your way out of war zones, paying
for transportation, housing and settling somewhere better/safer. Cash is
king and money makes the world go around. And when you don’t have
money, you better have hope, because chances are you’ll have little
else. Gloomy people are very cautiously buying groceries.
And gloomy clerks are sympathetically measuring out 50 grams of cheese
or liverwurst, packing two or three cracked eggs into a plastic bag
(they are cheaper and so in great demand), or weighing out a single
frozen chicken wing.
FerFAL Comment: Just read that paragraph again whenever you wonder if you have enough food stored (and don’t forget water!)
But they categorically refuse to accept change. Change has become the
subject of fierce arguments. A cashier in one downtown grocery angrily
said they have several hundred thousand hryvnyas' worth of change down
in their basement and they can't get rid of it.
The same is true of
the 100-hryvnya notes with the little portrait of Taras Shevchenko that
were given to many pensioners on the eve of the "elections" in the
"Luhansk People's Republic." They, it is said, are no longer valid,
banks don't take them. And so stores and traders don't either. Retirees
are unhappy, upset. They swear a lot, but they don't threaten to file a
complaint. There is no one and nowhere to complain to. They just wonder,
"what banks?" Not a single bank in Luhansk is open for business.
Recently the last Sberbank offices shut their doors. There are long
lines at the bank machines despite the cold.
FerFAL Comment:
And while cash is king (and lines form at ATMs “bank machines”), all
fiat currencies have their limits. The lesson here is have enough cash,
have enough cash in more stable currencies such as dollars and Euros,
better yet, have most of them in an offshore account and then for worst
case scenarios have real money, gold and silver. Now lines
are forming at Internet providers. At the end of November, Triolan
completely unexpectedly and without warning stopped providing free
Internet services. So now hundreds of people are standing in line to get
reconnected. There is great demand and few technicians. The
infrastructure is damaged and express connections are going for 150
hyrvnyas ($9.60), which not everyone can afford. So, for many, even the
Internet has become a temporarily inaccessible luxury. A window on the
world has closed, one that enabled people to watch Ukrainian television.
In Luhansk, they only broadcast Russian, Crimean, and Belarussian
television. A door has closed to a world in which heroes are called
heroes, terrorists are called terrorists, mercenaries are called
mercenaries, and occupiers are called occupiers. And the latter are not
portrayed as angels with shining halos.
That's why there are more people than usual in the Internet cafes (8 hryvnyas per hour).
FerFAL
Comment: Have your own communications. A small “world radio” can open
again that closed window mentioned above. Also, expect propaganda and
censorship. War or economic collapse, expect lots of censorship.
But
even in the Internet cafes, there aren't that many people. There are
noticeably fewer people downtown in general. After 4 p.m., it is better
not to leave your home unless you have to. Offices and businesses
"unofficially" close even around lunch time. "Night" grocery stores that
formerly were open around the clock, close at 5 p.m. Why should they
stay open when there are no customers? Even in the daytime, there aren't
many. As evening comes, it is scary to walk down the dark, deserted
streets. Packs of starving dogs have flooded the courtyards of the
central city. The dogs have bitten many people, but, of course, there is
no one to try to catch them.
FerFAL Comment: This we also
saw a lot after Argentina’s economic collapse. People that cant afford
to feed themselves wont feed pets. Many just kick them out, and they
form wild packs that often attack people, especially children. A little
tip to keep in mind: you know when things get really scary? When these
packs quietly start to disappear, and all of a sudden you just cant seem
to find a single cat. Cats are the first to go, they word gets around
fast that they taste better than dogs… The faces of the
pensioners are particularly gloomy. At 6 a.m., in the dark and the cold,
they are trying to cram themselves into packed buses to go to
Lisichansk or Starobelsk to collect their pensions. Who can say what
awaits them during the many searches at various checkpoints? Or what
they will be accused of as they stand, in their sunset years, in front
of young armed men like prisoners of war before a tribunal or helpless
prisoners in front of all-powerful gulag guards?
One of my
neighbors has already traveled to Izyum four times, but still hasn't
gotten his pension. Some sort of issue with his documents. But he
doesn't complain and maintains a gloomy silence. When I ask him about
it, he turns and walks away.
Complaining is not allowed these
days. And in general many Luhansk residents who were formerly quite
chatty have turned to silence. They might comment on the weather, but no
one is speaking about politics, about the economy, about the state of
affairs in the city. Even within the circle of their old friends or
former colleagues. Who knows? A word is not a swallow that will fly away
-- many people are recalling 1937 and the black vans that collected the
condemned. Shadows, they say, come at midnight.
FerFAL
Comment: Lots of waiting in line, at times for days, for things that in
other places are either automatic (a pension paid to your account) or
can be fixed online or with a five minute phone call. Queues everywhere,
for the most mundane thing, a line for bread, for cash at the ATM, for
your document/passport. Here's a small example from the
life of our neighborhood. After the heating season began, one homeowner
began repairing a war-damaged floor. A neighbor thought the workers were
too noisy and that they were bothering her, although they worked only
during the day and were pretty careful. She told someone she knew who
had connections in certain circles. Very soon, a few armed people in
camouflage showed up, confiscated all the workers' tools, and took the
homeowner -- as the organizer of the disorder -- away "for a check" in
prison (as they call the basements that have been adapted to hold
Luhansk residents in rooms where 15 or 20 people share one wastebucket
that is emptied once a day). Only after 10 days of truths and lies and
agreements and who-knows-what-else, his wife managed to get him
released. He'd lost weight. He'd aged. He'd become a different man.
In
short, Luhansk, under the "LPR," has become a city of downcast faces. A
friend of mine who moved to Kyiv in the summer tells me that people in
the capital can immediately recognize those recently displaced from
Luhansk and Donetsk precisely by the particularly mournful expression on
their faces, by the clear stamp of a unique wartime syndrome. How long
must a person live in peace before that expression is washed away? And
does it wash away entirely?
FerFAL Comment: Sadness and
self-censorship. You never know who’s listening. My mother in law is
like that these days back in Argentina. When my wife calls and talks
politics with my sister in law, criticizes the government, her mother
quickly reminds them to keep thier voice down because neighbors may hear
them. What are they afraid of? Criticising the government in Argentina
can get you in trouble, sometimes serious, sometimes not so much, but
it’s still recommended not to do so, for your own good. Pyotr Ivanov, psychologist Luhansk
The siege of Luhansk this summer was predictable. The war was in full
swing, the city was being shelled, and all those able to flee the city
had already done so. Those who had stayed in Luhansk tried to stock up
on supplies, bracing for the worst. When the siege began, people quickly
realized that what they had considered vital items were actually not at
all what they now needed.
When they prepare for war, people often
fail to realize that they will run out of water, not of food! And when
the water runs out, they find themselves surrounded by bags of grains of
which they can only consume a handful, at best.
Water ran out in
Luhansk on August 31. All of it. I mention this so that people clearly
understand. Some people thought the shortages would affect only drinking
water and bought large quantities of water purification tablets. But
very soon, there was no water in Luhansk in which to drop these tablets!
There was no drinking water, no tap water, not even puddles (it rained
only once in August). In the first days of the siege, you could still
find bottled mineral water in shops. Then it disappeared entirely. Two
weeks later, bottles went back on sale, at the market. The price for it
was twice -- then thrice -- what it used to be.
Then water started
being delivered in vehicles. For free. As many as 200 or 300 hundred
people would queue up, there were scuffles. Residents were eventually
given access to the city's water reserves. Again, hundreds of people
would stand in line and scuffles broke out. The fighting ended when
machine-gun-touting insurgents began supervising the queues. All in all,
we gathered water at gunpoint.
FerFAL Comment: Remember
what I said earlier about water? You run out of water, you run out of
food. Eventually you realize you should have left. This is true for
Syria, Ukraine, and it will always be true for any war-torn region.
For some people, another product is even harder to forgo than bread.
Cigarettes. At least, cigarettes help to forget about food. Cigarettes
disappeared in Luhansk two weeks before water. Smokers cleared up the
shelves regardless of brand and price -- the first huge queues in
Luhansk were for cigarettes. A few weeks later cigarettes turned up on
the black market, at exorbitant prices just like bottled water. By
mid-July, a pack of filterless cigarettes cost 17 hryvnyas on the black
market, almost two dollars at the exchange rate back then.
FerFAL
Comment: Like any other drug, its wasted money, bad for your health and
a sign of emotional weakness. You should be able to get by without
smokes and without booze. Kick the habit now and don’t be one of those
pathetic souls willing to trade a can of food for a smoke or a beer.
Today's pampered consumers rely heavily on their fridges. They
zealously pack fridges up the brim and are confident that with such
stockpiles they can survive an atomic war. Just in case, let me point
out that fridges require electricity.
Residents hide in a shelter in Makeyevka near Donetsk in mid-August. FerFAL
Comment: A good point often overlooked by prepers that just buy more
freezers. Freezers require electricity, they also break down and offer
relatively little storage space. Instead of filling freezers buy dried
food and canned food, or invest it in canning equipment.
Electricity was cut off as early as July 31. We had no electricity for
almost two months, right until mid-September. On the third day, a
campaign started in Luhansk called "remove the rotten meat from your
fridge." It was conducted in those flats and shops that were still
inhabited (or in the case of shops, that were guarded). Half of the
city's residents had already fled, leaving their fridges plugged in.
These people held the "clean-your-fridge" campaign only when they
returned, in September and October. Many threw out the fridge together
with the rotten meat.
What did people eat during the siege? Almost
all the shops were closed. Out of a dozen shopping sites in the city,
only one still operated. The remaining products were sold there and at
the market. The bakery worked round-the-clock, but there still long
queues for bread. People feared there wouldn't be enough. Elderly people
started queuing at 5 a.m. Fortunately, the shelling would usually start
later, after "breakfast time" as residents joked.
During a siege,
candles and batteries are essential. Still, in the evening, you could
see only two or three lit-up windows across the vast residential
expanse. Many apartments were deserted. The others were inhabited but
people in them could afford neither candles nor batteries.
FerFAL
Comment: How useful those low lumen modes can be. How important it is
to have batteries, common ones for your kit running AA and AAA. How much
money you can safe with rechargeables. And a quality solar charger?
Priceless!
I
cursed myself a lot for failing to put batteries in our old transistor
radio. By the time I realized my mistake, I couldn't afford to buy four
batteries (the price for one had already climbed to $1.30). This summer
in Luhansk, a radio was worth more than 20 computers put together.
That's because transistor radios stations can pick up stations that
broadcast useful information, news. For some reason, more recent models
like mine caught Chinese radio stations better than Russian- and
Ukrainian-language ones.
So I would sit on the balcony in the
evening, under the starry sky in a city without lights, without noise,
and I would listen to Chinese music. In the morning, my neighbors would
ask me to switch the radio on again tonight. As it turned out, they also
listened to it, from their windows.
Halyna Mudra, mathematician
Donetsk
The
Ukrainian president and his cabinet of ministers have imposed a total
financial and economic blockade on territories controlled by the
separatists. They have also stopped paying pensions and other social
allowances to people there.
This has prompted the leaders of the
Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (the DNR and LNR) to come up with
their own measures.
On December 4, DNR head Oleksandr Zakharchenko
and LNR head Ihor Plotnitskiy approved the action plan (or "road map")
drafted by the so-called "council of ministers of the republics." The
measures will allegedly ensure the stable payment of pensions and social
allowances, create a financial system, establish regulations governing
budgetary processes, set up a temporary banking system, which will in
turn support socially vulnerable people, and create financial
institutions while remaining in the Hryvnia zone.
The "road map" was
first applied on November 4 in the town of Torez. In the building of
the local pension fund, employees (who obviously now already work for
the DNR) started distributing 1,000-hryvnya vouchers ($63) to
pensioners. According to a special schedule, every day 50 pensioners can
exchange their voucher for money at the DNR "bank."
People start
queuing up at 4 a.m. Fights and brawls are common -- four people have
already been trampled, one woman broke her leg. The militants restore
order by firing their rifles into the air.
The pension fund handed
out as many as 2,500 vouchers in just two days, which means the last of
these vouchers will be exchanged on January 25, 2015! The lucky first
100 pensioners received their cash on December 4 and 5. The actual
origin of this money is murky, especially considering that the DNR
"bank" is based in the seized building of the former Privatbank, on
Gagarin Street.
Interestingly, people already registered in Ukraine
as people displaced by the conflict are not entitled to vouchers. Before
handing out vouchers, pension fund workers open the Ukrainian state
pension registry and check whether the claimant is listed on it. How
come the DNR has access to the state pension registry? Obviously this
happens across the DNR and concerns other government records!
Before
the separatists took control of Torez in June, 80,000 people lived in
that city, including 27,332 pensioners. Many have since fled to other
others parts of Ukraine and to Russia. But while the number of residents
has dropped sharply, the number of pensioners remains more or less the
same. This means the DNR will need a year and a half and about 27
million hryvnyas ($1.7 million) to support all Torez pensioners for just
one month!
Torez is now ruled by a "military commander" and a
"police" force. Electrical and water supply is sporadic, banks and cash
points are closed, government and official law-enforcement agencies have
been evacuated. Ukrainian authorities halted the payment of pensions,
social allowances, and salaries on July 15.
On November 17,
disgruntled Torez residents blocked a street in protest. A DNR
representative eventually sent the protesters home with the promise that
payments will be resumed. This is why the first pensions were paid out
in Torez. But pensioners are unlikely to be satisfied with the new
system, not to mention disabled people and women with children. As for
doctors, teachers, and other public sector employees, they have not been
paid since July.
There were other attempts to mollify pensioners.
Ahead of the November 2 "elections" of the DNR's so-called "People's
Council," for instance, all housing offices across the Donetsk region
accepted applications for 1,800 hryvnya ($114) in retirement benefits.
They sent people home and told people to wait. When the payments failed
to arrive, impatient pensioners demanded their money. Now, pensioners
are being asked to file new applications for retirement benefits, this
time only to the amount of between 500 and 1,000 hryvnyas.
In view
of the project's complete economic failure, residents of the Donetsk
region, even those who voted for the DNR, are starting to doubt. They
don't understand what kind of economic, political, and social system
these "People's Republics" are supposed to have. Who will take ownership
of the region's key assets -- factories, mines, agricultural land,
transport infrastructure, housing -- is also unclear. And it's precisely
who owns these assets that will determine the quality of life, the
level of social benefits and social protection of citizens.
If at
least Ukrainian authorities understood that people need help grasping
complex issues. For example, they could try explaining to Ukrainian
citizens in the DNR the decree adopted on November 4 by Ukraine's
National Security and Defense Council [the decree spells out urgent
measures to stabilize the socio-economic situation in the Donetsk and
Luhansk regions]. Russian and separatist television channels have been
brainwashing people since April. So I'm afraid Ukraine is completely
losing the information war here in the DNR.
Folks, I think
this is great information and a lot can be learned from it. Food, water,
money, batteries, essential supplies such as medicine are surely
precious as well. I think that the key is still to have means so as to
not be there in the first place. Have a bug out plan. A place to go to,
means to get there, and as I’ve posted many times before: TIMING IS
EVERYTHING. Leaving in time means you can get the most out of what you
leave behind, sell, or take with you. Running when the bombs are
dropping is a tad to late. Expat or refugee, its all about timing. Feel
free to quote me on that one! Take care people. I'll do Part 2 soon. FerFAL
Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre is the author of “The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse” and “Bugging Out and Relocating: When Staying is not an Option”.
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