A man walks past a building damaged in recent shelling in Donetsk's Kyivskiy district, near the airport, on October 7.
The following testimonies are published by RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service. http://www.rferl.org
I added some of my own thoughts and observations. I hope you learn something from it and as always comments are always welcomed.
Mykhaylo Vasilyev, pensioner
Luhansk used to be poetically called "the city of fountains and roses." Now it is the city of downcast faces. Sad, downcast, emaciated. And very tired -- tired of having no money, mass unemployment, poverty and damaged homes, constant problems with electricity, water, heating, and telephones. But most of all, tired from the loss of hope.
There are downcast faces everywhere. On the streets, in the half-empty stores and various offices, in the remaining markets. A smile in Luhansk has become a rare thing, like a dandelion in winter. Smiles remain together with the interrupted peace -- in the past, in our memories.
FerFAL Comment: In most disasters that I have researched over the years, especially long term ones, having enough money helped greatly. Paying for food at inflated prices, bribing your way out of war zones, paying for transportation, housing and settling somewhere better/safer. Cash is king and money makes the world go around. And when you don’t have money, you better have hope, because chances are you’ll have little else.
Gloomy people are very cautiously buying groceries. And gloomy clerks are sympathetically measuring out 50 grams of cheese or liverwurst, packing two or three cracked eggs into a plastic bag (they are cheaper and so in great demand), or weighing out a single frozen chicken wing.
FerFAL Comment: Just read that paragraph again whenever you wonder if you have enough food stored (and don’t forget water!)
But they categorically refuse to accept change. Change has become the subject of fierce arguments. A cashier in one downtown grocery angrily said they have several hundred thousand hryvnyas' worth of change down in their basement and they can't get rid of it.
The same is true of the 100-hryvnya notes with the little portrait of Taras Shevchenko that were given to many pensioners on the eve of the "elections" in the "Luhansk People's Republic." They, it is said, are no longer valid, banks don't take them. And so stores and traders don't either. Retirees are unhappy, upset. They swear a lot, but they don't threaten to file a complaint. There is no one and nowhere to complain to. They just wonder, "what banks?" Not a single bank in Luhansk is open for business. Recently the last Sberbank offices shut their doors. There are long lines at the bank machines despite the cold.
FerFAL Comment: And while cash is king (and lines form at ATMs “bank machines”), all fiat currencies have their limits. The lesson here is have enough cash, have enough cash in more stable currencies such as dollars and Euros, better yet, have most of them in an offshore account and then for worst case scenarios have real money, gold and silver.
Now lines are forming at Internet providers. At the end of November, Triolan completely unexpectedly and without warning stopped providing free Internet services. So now hundreds of people are standing in line to get reconnected. There is great demand and few technicians. The infrastructure is damaged and express connections are going for 150 hyrvnyas ($9.60), which not everyone can afford. So, for many, even the Internet has become a temporarily inaccessible luxury. A window on the world has closed, one that enabled people to watch Ukrainian television. In Luhansk, they only broadcast Russian, Crimean, and Belarussian television. A door has closed to a world in which heroes are called heroes, terrorists are called terrorists, mercenaries are called mercenaries, and occupiers are called occupiers. And the latter are not portrayed as angels with shining halos.
That's why there are more people than usual in the Internet cafes (8 hryvnyas per hour).
FerFAL Comment: Have your own communications. A small “world radio” can open again that closed window mentioned above. Also, expect propaganda and censorship. War or economic collapse, expect lots of censorship.
FerFAL Comment: This we also saw a lot after Argentina’s economic collapse. People that cant afford to feed themselves wont feed pets. Many just kick them out, and they form wild packs that often attack people, especially children. A little tip to keep in mind: you know when things get really scary? When these packs quietly start to disappear, and all of a sudden you just cant seem to find a single cat. Cats are the first to go, they word gets around fast that they taste better than dogs…
The faces of the pensioners are particularly gloomy. At 6 a.m., in the dark and the cold, they are trying to cram themselves into packed buses to go to Lisichansk or Starobelsk to collect their pensions. Who can say what awaits them during the many searches at various checkpoints? Or what they will be accused of as they stand, in their sunset years, in front of young armed men like prisoners of war before a tribunal or helpless prisoners in front of all-powerful gulag guards?
One of my neighbors has already traveled to Izyum four times, but still hasn't gotten his pension. Some sort of issue with his documents. But he doesn't complain and maintains a gloomy silence. When I ask him about it, he turns and walks away.
Complaining is not allowed these days. And in general many Luhansk residents who were formerly quite chatty have turned to silence. They might comment on the weather, but no one is speaking about politics, about the economy, about the state of affairs in the city. Even within the circle of their old friends or former colleagues. Who knows? A word is not a swallow that will fly away -- many people are recalling 1937 and the black vans that collected the condemned. Shadows, they say, come at midnight.
FerFAL Comment: Lots of waiting in line, at times for days, for things that in other places are either automatic (a pension paid to your account) or can be fixed online or with a five minute phone call. Queues everywhere, for the most mundane thing, a line for bread, for cash at the ATM, for your document/passport.
Here's a small example from the life of our neighborhood. After the heating season began, one homeowner began repairing a war-damaged floor. A neighbor thought the workers were too noisy and that they were bothering her, although they worked only during the day and were pretty careful. She told someone she knew who had connections in certain circles. Very soon, a few armed people in camouflage showed up, confiscated all the workers' tools, and took the homeowner -- as the organizer of the disorder -- away "for a check" in prison (as they call the basements that have been adapted to hold Luhansk residents in rooms where 15 or 20 people share one wastebucket that is emptied once a day). Only after 10 days of truths and lies and agreements and who-knows-what-else, his wife managed to get him released. He'd lost weight. He'd aged. He'd become a different man.
In short, Luhansk, under the "LPR," has become a city of downcast faces. A friend of mine who moved to Kyiv in the summer tells me that people in the capital can immediately recognize those recently displaced from Luhansk and Donetsk precisely by the particularly mournful expression on their faces, by the clear stamp of a unique wartime syndrome. How long must a person live in peace before that expression is washed away? And does it wash away entirely?
FerFAL Comment: Sadness and self-censorship. You never know who’s listening. My mother in law is like that these days back in Argentina. When my wife calls and talks politics with my sister in law, criticizes the government, her mother quickly reminds them to keep thier voice down because neighbors may hear them. What are they afraid of? Criticising the government in Argentina can get you in trouble, sometimes serious, sometimes not so much, but it’s still recommended not to do so, for your own good.
Pyotr Ivanov, psychologist
The siege of Luhansk this summer was predictable. The war was in full swing, the city was being shelled, and all those able to flee the city had already done so. Those who had stayed in Luhansk tried to stock up on supplies, bracing for the worst. When the siege began, people quickly realized that what they had considered vital items were actually not at all what they now needed.
When they prepare for war, people often fail to realize that they will run out of water, not of food! And when the water runs out, they find themselves surrounded by bags of grains of which they can only consume a handful, at best.
Water ran out in Luhansk on August 31. All of it. I mention this so that people clearly understand. Some people thought the shortages would affect only drinking water and bought large quantities of water purification tablets. But very soon, there was no water in Luhansk in which to drop these tablets! There was no drinking water, no tap water, not even puddles (it rained only once in August). In the first days of the siege, you could still find bottled mineral water in shops. Then it disappeared entirely. Two weeks later, bottles went back on sale, at the market. The price for it was twice -- then thrice -- what it used to be.
Then water started being delivered in vehicles. For free. As many as 200 or 300 hundred people would queue up, there were scuffles. Residents were eventually given access to the city's water reserves. Again, hundreds of people would stand in line and scuffles broke out. The fighting ended when machine-gun-touting insurgents began supervising the queues. All in all, we gathered water at gunpoint.
FerFAL Comment: Remember what I said earlier about water? You run out of water, you run out of food. Eventually you realize you should have left. This is true for Syria, Ukraine, and it will always be true for any war-torn region.
For some people, another product is even harder to forgo than bread. Cigarettes. At least, cigarettes help to forget about food. Cigarettes disappeared in Luhansk two weeks before water. Smokers cleared up the shelves regardless of brand and price -- the first huge queues in Luhansk were for cigarettes. A few weeks later cigarettes turned up on the black market, at exorbitant prices just like bottled water. By mid-July, a pack of filterless cigarettes cost 17 hryvnyas on the black market, almost two dollars at the exchange rate back then.
FerFAL Comment: Like any other drug, its wasted money, bad for your health and a sign of emotional weakness. You should be able to get by without smokes and without booze. Kick the habit now and don’t be one of those pathetic souls willing to trade a can of food for a smoke or a beer.
Today's pampered consumers rely heavily on their fridges. They zealously pack fridges up the brim and are confident that with such stockpiles they can survive an atomic war. Just in case, let me point out that fridges require electricity.
Residents hide in a shelter in Makeyevka near Donetsk in mid-August.
FerFAL Comment: A good point often overlooked by prepers that just buy more freezers. Freezers require electricity, they also break down and offer relatively little storage space. Instead of filling freezers buy dried food and canned food, or invest it in canning equipment.
Electricity was cut off as early as July 31. We had no electricity for almost two months, right until mid-September. On the third day, a campaign started in Luhansk called "remove the rotten meat from your fridge." It was conducted in those flats and shops that were still inhabited (or in the case of shops, that were guarded). Half of the city's residents had already fled, leaving their fridges plugged in. These people held the "clean-your-fridge" campaign only when they returned, in September and October. Many threw out the fridge together with the rotten meat.
What did people eat during the siege? Almost all the shops were closed. Out of a dozen shopping sites in the city, only one still operated. The remaining products were sold there and at the market. The bakery worked round-the-clock, but there still long queues for bread. People feared there wouldn't be enough. Elderly people started queuing at 5 a.m. Fortunately, the shelling would usually start later, after "breakfast time" as residents joked.
During a siege, candles and batteries are essential. Still, in the evening, you could see only two or three lit-up windows across the vast residential expanse. Many apartments were deserted. The others were inhabited but people in them could afford neither candles nor batteries.
FerFAL Comment: How useful those low lumen modes can be. How important it is to have batteries, common ones for your kit running AA and AAA. How much money you can safe with rechargeables. And a quality solar charger? Priceless!
So I would sit on the balcony in the evening, under the starry sky in a city without lights, without noise, and I would listen to Chinese music. In the morning, my neighbors would ask me to switch the radio on again tonight. As it turned out, they also listened to it, from their windows.
Halyna Mudra, mathematician
The Ukrainian president and his cabinet of ministers have imposed a total financial and economic blockade on territories controlled by the separatists. They have also stopped paying pensions and other social allowances to people there.
This has prompted the leaders of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (the DNR and LNR) to come up with their own measures.
On December 4, DNR head Oleksandr Zakharchenko and LNR head Ihor Plotnitskiy approved the action plan (or "road map") drafted by the so-called "council of ministers of the republics." The measures will allegedly ensure the stable payment of pensions and social allowances, create a financial system, establish regulations governing budgetary processes, set up a temporary banking system, which will in turn support socially vulnerable people, and create financial institutions while remaining in the Hryvnia zone.
The "road map" was first applied on November 4 in the town of Torez. In the building of the local pension fund, employees (who obviously now already work for the DNR) started distributing 1,000-hryvnya vouchers ($63) to pensioners. According to a special schedule, every day 50 pensioners can exchange their voucher for money at the DNR "bank."
People start queuing up at 4 a.m. Fights and brawls are common -- four people have already been trampled, one woman broke her leg. The militants restore order by firing their rifles into the air.
The pension fund handed out as many as 2,500 vouchers in just two days, which means the last of these vouchers will be exchanged on January 25, 2015! The lucky first 100 pensioners received their cash on December 4 and 5. The actual origin of this money is murky, especially considering that the DNR "bank" is based in the seized building of the former Privatbank, on Gagarin Street.
Interestingly, people already registered in Ukraine as people displaced by the conflict are not entitled to vouchers. Before handing out vouchers, pension fund workers open the Ukrainian state pension registry and check whether the claimant is listed on it. How come the DNR has access to the state pension registry? Obviously this happens across the DNR and concerns other government records!
Before the separatists took control of Torez in June, 80,000 people lived in that city, including 27,332 pensioners. Many have since fled to other others parts of Ukraine and to Russia. But while the number of residents has dropped sharply, the number of pensioners remains more or less the same. This means the DNR will need a year and a half and about 27 million hryvnyas ($1.7 million) to support all Torez pensioners for just one month!
Torez is now ruled by a "military commander" and a "police" force. Electrical and water supply is sporadic, banks and cash points are closed, government and official law-enforcement agencies have been evacuated. Ukrainian authorities halted the payment of pensions, social allowances, and salaries on July 15.
On November 17, disgruntled Torez residents blocked a street in protest. A DNR representative eventually sent the protesters home with the promise that payments will be resumed. This is why the first pensions were paid out in Torez. But pensioners are unlikely to be satisfied with the new system, not to mention disabled people and women with children. As for doctors, teachers, and other public sector employees, they have not been paid since July.
There were other attempts to mollify pensioners. Ahead of the November 2 "elections" of the DNR's so-called "People's Council," for instance, all housing offices across the Donetsk region accepted applications for 1,800 hryvnya ($114) in retirement benefits. They sent people home and told people to wait. When the payments failed to arrive, impatient pensioners demanded their money. Now, pensioners are being asked to file new applications for retirement benefits, this time only to the amount of between 500 and 1,000 hryvnyas.
In view of the project's complete economic failure, residents of the Donetsk region, even those who voted for the DNR, are starting to doubt. They don't understand what kind of economic, political, and social system these "People's Republics" are supposed to have. Who will take ownership of the region's key assets -- factories, mines, agricultural land, transport infrastructure, housing -- is also unclear. And it's precisely who owns these assets that will determine the quality of life, the level of social benefits and social protection of citizens.
If at least Ukrainian authorities understood that people need help grasping complex issues. For example, they could try explaining to Ukrainian citizens in the DNR the decree adopted on November 4 by Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council [the decree spells out urgent measures to stabilize the socio-economic situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions]. Russian and separatist television channels have been brainwashing people since April. So I'm afraid Ukraine is completely losing the information war here in the DNR.
Folks, I think this is great information and a lot can be learned from it. Food, water, money, batteries, essential supplies such as medicine are surely precious as well. I think that the key is still to have means so as to not be there in the first place. Have a bug out plan. A place to go to, means to get there, and as I’ve posted many times before: TIMING IS EVERYTHING. Leaving in time means you can get the most out of what you leave behind, sell, or take with you. Running when the bombs are dropping is a tad to late. Expat or refugee, its all about timing. Feel free to quote me on that one!
Take care people. I'll do Part 2 soon.
Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre is the author of “The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse” and “Bugging Out and Relocating: When Staying is not an Option”.