Folks
there’s this fantastic thread over at ar15 survival forum where member
Gyprat posts about his experience the Soviet Union during its
socioeconomic collapse. I encourage you to follow the link and read the
entire thread.
Gyprat's insigths into societal collapse
Here are some thoughts and notes I took about parallelisms, similarities and some differences too with what I saw in Argentina.
1)”
One day I remember well was in August of 1991, when communists
attempted a government takeover coup. I was in Moscow that day. Everyone
was scared and confused. Nothing was on the news. Oil pump quit in my
little Lada's engine and I was not far from one of the busiest
intersections, where tanks were taking positions to fire at something. I
was lucky to have tools and skills to pull the oil pan off and to make a
temporary repair to the oil pump shaft to get us back home.”
The
Lada comment and car problems right in the middle of chaos, protests and
social unrest. This means no one to call to tow your car, no help, no
insurance or breakdown cover, you have to fix it yourself. In my case it
wasn’t a Lada but a Renault 9. A reliable, but mostly simple carburetor
engine vehicle that was easy to work on and parts easily available.
Dear God I’m no mechanic by any stretch of the imagination but I knew
that car well and could fix little problems with my Leatherman, some
wire and duct tape. At times that made the difference between having a
vehicle when SHTF all around you or not. Today, the lesson for me is
keeping my Honda well equipped and well serviced in an official Honda
shop.
2) The rumours, lies and misinformation. Understanding that
the government lies, that companies lie (yes, for profit! Unbelievable!)
, that the media owned by such companies lies as well. Lies and social
engineering, how people’s opinion is “shaped” and they don’t even
realize it. Maybe this is one of the most important, key aspects taking
place today. Alas, 99.9% of people, even those that consider themselves
“conservatives” don’t even realize they’ve been manipulated in such a
way.
3)” Monetary system? Everything was cash based.”
Yup,
indeed it was. Cash is king. Even when devaluating it’s still king. You
have to be careful and watch before things go Venezuela or Weimar
republic on you (meaning cash becoming practically worthless) but cash
gets things done.
4)” Some people had savings accounts in the only
available, government owned bank. Once the inflation hit, savings
accounts were frozen by the government. People had to stand in long
lines to get a limited amount of money out. I can't remember all the
details but the inflation hit very hard.”
Oh I sure can relate to that.
One
of the most powerful tools that I’ve mentioned here before (even if
some of the “experts” here have mocked me for it) having an off shore
bank account and second nationality. When everyone in my country was
struggling to get 300 pesos out of an ATM, I could go to a local branch
of my off shore bank, use their ATM and get 1000 USD out of it, cash.
Then go to an “arbolito”, street currency dealer, and turn that into
4000 pesos. Only Gyprat here understands what that means. To have your
money safely abroad, and access it, while everyone else a)Lost 66% of
their savings b) will keep losing more to inflation c) cant even access
what’s left of it.
5)” I could barter almost anything for alcohol.”
Alcohol
is always a valuable barter item, especially in times of war, but I
believe its also very much cultural as well. A bottle of vodka sure has
more of an appeal in a place like Russia than in South America. I my
experience it was always cash the nice thing to have and most often used
in bribes. Gyprat mentions cash bribes as well, I think it’s the
“safest” route for something that has universal appeal. Maybe in USA a
box of ammo has somewhat of a similar appeal, especially in more pro gun
areas. In general though, if I had to advice anyone I’d say go with
cash if you have to buy your way through trouble.
Regarding
bribes, it sure is illegal and you shouldn’t do it, but then again
sometimes you do NOT have an option. I know because I’ve been in such
situations before. Sometimes it culturally accepted, (even if it wasn’t
not long ago) and sometimes it’s so accepted that it’s expected of you,
and not doing what’s expected of you when dealing with corrupt people
with power gets you in very serious, life threatening trouble. Consider
yourself lucky if you’ve never been in that position, but know that some
of us have.
6)” Medical services were free.”
Free in
Argentina too, although not nearly as good as having private cover like I
had. One of my grandparents died before his time because of poor public
cover. I will admit though that poor public cover is better than no
cover, and that with the new government in Argentina the free public
healthcare is doing much better once again. Turns out that when
politicians aren’t stealing 90% of the people’s money, it’s much easier
and cheaper to get shit done! If I was poor and suffered health
problems, I’d rather be in Argentina today than in USA. Healthcare will
be a main topic to work on for American survivalists in the future. You
just have to check GD forum here to read up on some horror stories. Make
it a priority to have as good health cover as you can afford, and as
always options, options, options. The more the better.
7)” Water
was another story. We live near the highest spot in the whole city.
Water pressure was always low and we only had water from 6-9 AM and back
at 5 through 8PM. That's it. Water quality was terrible too.”
Yup,
little water and of poor quality. By code, homes in Argentina have at
least a 1000l tank. That means the tank gets filled up during the times
of the day that you actually have water, and you use the 1000l during
the day. With a bit of careful use you can get through a couple days or
more, but the problem is that people forget about the automated system
and only realize theres something going on when they run out of the
reserve tank which is no longer being refilled.
Poor water quality means a good water filter is essential.
“Natural gas, on the other hand, was always there and was almost free.”
Yes,
natural gas is generally pretty reliable if you have a city connection.
Its also much cheaper than buying bottles, another advantage of being
closer to a town that actually has NG. Ironically enough, people that
live further away, in many cases poor people that live in less
consolidated areas, they have to pay a lot more for gas used for
heating.
8) I was just telling my oldest son about the time my
grandparents lost everything. They had been successful business owners,
both of them. My grandfather had a large carpentry shop, half a block
workshop, my grandmother had a successful bakery, also pretty big. They
made very good money. Because of the increase in crime and a couple
armed robberies my grandmother sold the bakery. They still had my
grandfather’s business. My aunt convinced my grandfather that he was
already a successful businessman, to just sell his company and live off
interest and investments. So he did that. Sold it, put the money in the
bank and bought a couple small rental flats. Then came the
hyperinflation in the later 80’s. My father, an accountant and executive
in a large bank, told them to take the money out of the bank ASAP. They
didn’t listen, my aunt told them it would be all right. It wasn’t and
they lost everything. The retirement collected each month was pitiful
and really the rentals were the only thing keeping them afloat.
I
remember it was the first time I heard my father shout so much. My
grandparents were crying in the kitchen, asking him “what do we do
now!?” My dad was so pissed, he shouted back “Nothing! now you’re
fucked! Why didn’t you listen to me!?”. Sometimes people self-destruct
like that. You know what’s better for them, you try to make them
understand but they just don’t listen. Of course it’s much worse when
its people you care for.
9)” This meant that everything was tied
to a real market price, tied to the real currency exchange rate. Prices
skyrocketed. People were walking around in shock and disbelief after
they saw new prices on food and everything else. It was like 10, 100 or
1000 times more than a month earlier. Yes, food was readily available
but people could not afford much because they were still getting paid
very little..”
Amen to that. This is what folks sometimes don’t
understand. Cash is king, yet you have to be careful with
hyperinflation. If a banana costs 1000 USD, does that mean the USD is
worthless? Well, not if you need that banana and you have those 1000
bucks. “So I should stock up on bananas/tools/stuff! Sell it after the
collapse!” Well… no. There’s lots of “stuff” floating around, the price
will rarely be as good as you hope. Only certain items at a certain time
keep up the price. In my case it was foreign currency, what Gyprat
calls “real market price”. In the case of Argentina I know gold and
silver stayed in that “real market price” too and that’s where I see
Americans finding a safety net in such an economic disaster takes place
there. Even if bananas cost 1000USD each, I don’t see 1oz gold coins
selling for 2000 USD, the price will most likely than not go up just
like the price of bananas did.
10)” Food was number one priority
back then. Like I said previously, people were not really starving but
they were not eating as good as what's considered normal here in the US.
I often laugh when I hear on the news about people who "starve" here in
the US. How is this possible when food is so cheap and available
everywhere? Perhaps they call it starving when they can't afford to eat
out everyday? Obviously they have no clue about basic things like
cooking. Yes, it's nice to have pork chops or a steak every day but it
costs a lot too. Why not make soup? It's relatively cheap and will feed a
family for several days. A 50 lbs. bag of rice can be purchased at
Costco for around $15 and will last for a long time. You can make a lot
of mouth watering dishes from potatoes only. How can you go hungry in
this country???”
Regarding food and eating habits it was as bad or
even worse in Argentina in terms of eating habits. Argentines eat meat,
and meat in Argentina means beef. An “asado” often mistaken with a BBQ,
is not about grilling a few burgers or hotdogs. Its about getting all
sorts of cuts from a cow, preparing the organs and eating it all. Any
Argentine male worth his salt knows how to prepare a fire and cook
everything inside an animal on it, most know how to ID each cut of meat
and organ. We had to adapt and understand that in spite of our cultural
tradition food didn’t mean a pound of beef in each plate. You had to
stretch it, lots of rice, pasta, make soups, cook lentils. That same
pound of meat that used to sit in a single plate now went into a big pot
along with rice, vegetables etc and fed the entire family. Sure this
means learning to cook for those that don’t know how to do it already.
11)
“My grandparents shared a lot stories about the WW2 with me. I sure
learned a lot of valuable lessons from them. My grandmother told me
stories about people trading everything they had, including gold and
silver for a piece of dry bread so their children would not die of
starvation, or at least live another week. This was true survival. Food
was very important. Alcohol and tobacco were very valuable items as
well.”
My wife’s grandparents went through WWII in Italy. Her
grandmother had a big chain of gold and would go to town to sell a few
link to buy whatever they needed. By the time they left Italy and moved
to Argentina that neck chain had lost so many links it was now short
enough to be a bracelet. My wife still has that bracelet. While I see
how in some desperate situation you may end up trading precious metals
at a great loss, in general I would say that with enough time and know
how you can put precious metals to very good use, especially in
countries where there’s already a culture and understanding of what
precious metals are, how to ID them and their overall value.
12)
“The supply line was always overloaded in summer months. Forget about
running a hair dryer or any high wattage appliances. It was enough for
lights and maybe for a TV. We were the only ones who could watch TV
because my dad installed a CVT to keep the voltage close to 220V. Our
neighbors were lucky if they got 160 Volts in the evening and it often
sagged down to below 140 Volts and could spike to above 260V, early in
the morning. It was enough for lights but not enough for a TV or any
other appliance. The electrical company was owned by the government and
could care less, like every other organization back then.”
This I
can completely relate to and experiences the exact same thing. In my
case, in Buenos Aires, we rarely had spikes, and it seemed that year
round, other than in winter when AC weren’t used as much, you had
150V-160V instead of 220V. This isnt enough to run a microwave and the
AC barely works or doesn’t work at all. I fixed it by installing a
voltage elevator. That thing cost me a good bit of money but was worth
every cent. Loved that thing. When I left I gave it away to my brother
in law. He didn’t seem to care though, and in spite of being a pretty
good electrician he just left it there in the house. By the time he
could be bothered with picking it up someone else took it. Some people
just cant be helped.
13)” One thing that was always available was bread.”
Probably
strongly linked to the Soviet communist system. Its good that they
managed to keep bread supplied but I certainly wouldn’t expect it in
other countries. Even in current Venezuela its clear that they can’t
keep people fed. Having flour and bakeries all over the country ready to
supply the population on demand even when little else is working in
terms of infrastructure is a serious achievement. Indeed, a person can
live on bread and water, but I wouldn’t count on it in most countries if
there’s a socioeconomic collapse.
14) “Having a vehicle for
transportation is essential for living in this country. I did not need a
car when I lived in Russia because everything was close and there was
good and affordable public transportation in most Russian cities and
even outside of city limits. American cities are spread out and it's
nearly impossible to get places without a vehicle.”
This is
another American-specific issue to prepare for. In Europe you can move
around most countries without a car. Even with a car public
transportation is very good and at times even more convenient. Why drive
somewhere, park and such, if an air conditioned train gets you there
faster without you having to drive? It is true that in certain small
towns public transportation isnt as good but in America you are always
expected to drive places rather than catch a train or bus. You need a
car and you need one that works well, and is affordable to fuel and
maintain. Heck, its so important you probably need two so as to have at
least one backup.
“I would probably trade my new 4runner for a 4x4
Dodge 2500 truck with a Cummins diesel or another vehicle that runs on
diesel fuel”
I just refilled my diesel Honda CRV. What was it? 30
bucks? I came back from Sierra Nevada just a few days ago. Round trip
about five hours driving time and I still had fuel to drive around town
and then some, about 44 mpg is I remember right. Diesel is just
fantastic. Its not only cheaper, it just gives you a lot more range on
these little engines, all while giving twice as much torque compared to
gasoline.
15)” The city we lived in (Tula) was about 100 miles
south of Moscow. Moscow, being the capital, always got much, much better
food availability and selection than any other city in the country.
Most government officials lived in Moscow and obviously they made sure
that their city was supplied better than anywhere else. They also wanted
to show off to some foreigners who visited the capital”
So much for large cities being the first place to burn down, refugees pouring out of them into the countryside!
It
is indeed typical for collapsed countries to keep their capitals and
other major cities strong. Its a practical decision (x money servicing a
larger number of people) a strategic one (capitals are usual government
headquarters) and psychological (the capital, the “head” of the country
and what it stands for).
16)” Crime was getting worse by the day.
Armed robberies became a new norm. People no longer trusted wooden
entry doors with regular locks. My friend's company built new, hardened
metal doors, locks and hinges that guaranteed to turn your apartment
into a fortress. The doors were bullet resistant and guaranteed to stop a
7.62mm AKM round fired at a close range.”
Exact same thing in
Argentina. Most houses have armoured doors. Not having one is
practically asking criminals to rob you. Not kidding here, if you don’t
have one and you get robbed people will go “what do you expect? Did you
see that stupid flimsy door he had?”
17) “Moving to another
country would be an ultimate test of your flexibility and ability to
adjust to new conditions and culture.”
And I would add, it’s the ultimate solution to a large scale SHTF that affect a country or region.
It’s
the one thing Gyprat and I have in common. We left the mess behind and
found greener pastures. The grass isn’t always greener on the other side
but it is if your side is collapsed Russia or Argentina. After years of
researching disasters and survivalism I can say with confidence that
when it gets THAT bad, you better move somewhere else. That’s the
ultimate solution. Study, have skills, get an education, for God’s sake
learn a second language and If you can get a second citizenship, don’t
let such an opportunity go to waste if you happen to have it.
FerFAL
Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre is the author of “The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse” and “Bugging Out and Relocating: When Staying is not an Option”.
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