Saturday, May 22, 2010

Argentina and USA Comparison

Anonymous said...

    Ferfal,

    For you to say "no" to Argentina-like collapse in U.S. seems like a change for you. I don't know why you would be surprised to be asked that question from people who read your blog. Your book shows perhaps the worst case scenario (Argentina) and many of your posts suggest preparations (body armor, dogs, constant attention to firearms, big changes and near collapse of many societal structures) that imply a pretty profound change.

    Very puzzling.

    Constant Reader
 Argentina-like similarities due to economic events does not mean USA will fall like Argentina did.
US Dollar loosing 66% of its value overnight? No one will allow that, no serious country would let that happen.


I”ve always said I want to move to USA ever since I started the blog. Been saying it for years before that too. What kind of idiot would I be if I got myself into what I already went through?

What I did say was that Argentina was very much a textbook socioeconomic collapse. Greece, Island, its like following a kitchen recipe for disaster and many of teh consequences are similar.
The US is going through a crisis, that does not mean that it will go to hell like Argentina did.
What I did say is that, given what ALREADY happened in USA, theres going to be consequences, many of them similar to what happened in Argentina and for which the mayority of people are not prepared for, even prepers, becase its a change of lifestyle, not a Mad Max end of the world type of thing.

It’s also not ...” puzzling”.. if you understand something: Preparing does not mean that everything will happen exactly the same to a T. If crime in you area gets worse you can use the security advice in my book, you can do many of the things people did in Argentina and I write about here in the blog or in the book. if you get fired or want to prepare in case that happens, same for everything else. If you suddenly find yourself unemployed you can read the parts on making money after SHTF.
A good friend of mine in Argentina has a big dog that goes with him during his walks for security reasons, specially when his bones hurt more than usual and he’s not feeling 100%. That’s smart and works in Argentina, USA and Taiwan, makes no difference.

You have to learn to take the information that you find useful and applies to your situation. There’s lots of important lessons that can be learned from what happened in Argentina. Wish more American politicians would follow those and not make the exact same mistakes we did!

FerFAL

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

The politicians will never follow the advice in your book, or in any common sense preparedness book. That's because they are destroying our country by design - at least the politicians at the national level. The elite will benefit tremendously from a severely weakened, or collapsed America, just like the elite benefit from collapses in every other country. Do not hold your breath waiting for them to "make the right choices"- it won't happen. You have to make the right choices yourself.

Bones said...

Every country is different, but the Argentine collapse provides an example of how failed socialist/populist policies can ruin an otherwise healthy economy. You can not legislate prosperity. Excess government intervention, nationalizing industry, stifling regulation, union backed wage controls, government price controls and politicians using tax revenue to buy off the electorate. Any of this sound similar to the current situation in the US? Watching Greece implode after decades of excessive public sector spending just underscores the point: Socialist control of the economy simply does not work. We need truly free markets for the economy to thrive. Wages must be free to rise AND fall and corporations need to compete, not rely on bailouts and protectionist legislation.

There really is no such thing as a free lunch.

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure if Constant Reader is truly puzzled or implying that Ferfal is flip-flopping in his assessment of the US economy. I hope he is merely confused and what I write here helps him understand why appearances are deceiving. Coming from a similar background albeit different country, I too see patterns here that led to a collapse in my home country. The similarities are remarkably close to send shivers down the my spine.

Nonetheless, the US is a much stronger economy than the rest of the combined economies of the industrialized world, i.e. the EU. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency. The US managed to export the American dream in the from of Treasury notes to the rest of the world and got real goods in exchange. I hate the phrase too big to fail when applied to banks because it's a lie, but in the case of the US it is true or the world will be the one without a chair when the music stops.


Gallo@GTA Forum

Maldek said...

"Nonetheless, the US is a much stronger economy than the rest of the combined economies of the industrialized world, i.e. the EU."

The EU *ALONE* is a bigger economy than the US. Please check the numbers.

Then there is China, Japan, Russian, Brazil, India just to name a few.

A visit to a local store reveals further evidence - "made in china" this, "made in china" that. So it MIGHT be that the world cant live without china now but what exactly is still "minde in USA"?

The times when what you wrote was reality are long gone.

Anonymous said...

Bigger does not mean stronger. The US has a stronger economy than all of the EU. Japan has the second largest economy in the world, followed by China. Still Japan depends on the US for military protection. The only real contender is China and they don't even have a free floating currency. Militarily speaking, China is in diapers compared to the US.

Gallo@GTA Forum.

Anonymous said...

"I'm not sure if Constant Reader is truly puzzled or implying that Ferfal is flip-flopping in his assessment of the US economy."

It did appear to me that Ferfal had backed off his pretty strong implications that the U.S. could face Argentina-like conditions. From his book and the blog, his preparations appear (to me) focused on a profound collapse in personal, financial, social, health, vocational, and other areas. I knew that he is hoping to move here but thought that his time frame was such that it was still a good move for him and his family.

"The similarities are remarkably close to send shivers down the my spine." There are many here in the U.S. who are not optimistic about the resiliency of the U.S. or the willingness of its "leaders" to face the numerous pressing societal and financial problems that demand immediate action. As far as I can see, U.S. leadership and their elite backers are concerned largely with their own well-being and livelihood, with re-election taking precedence over any realistic decision-making or "public service."

Whether I misunderstood Ferfal or not, his descriptions of Argentina's downfall continue to be useful to me in considering how I might plan for my family's future. Only a united effort, unlikely in this polarized and divided country, would force American legislators to act. There are just too many constituencies here to make that happen, IMHO.

Constant Reader

David said...

All these discussions of "which country is stronger, bigger, etc." are probably meaningless. What numbers does one use for such comparisons? The people publishing such numbers have massive incentives to lie, either overtly or "with statistics."

Niall Ferguson wrote a nice article detailing how fast previous empires went from the appearance of strength to complete collapse. Today's appearances mean NOTHING. The future of the USA is completely unknown and all possibilities should be entertained.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article24874.htm

We assume tomorrow will be the same as today, and this works real well most of the time...until it doesn't. Those who will not or cannot adapt will suffer.

Anonymous said...

The US economy is no different than any economy--it is not implosion-proof. The US government has already started to buy its own debt back, so paying double interest on the same loan (a bit like a double-mortgage). As well, just last week it became a crime for non-US brokerages to have US citizens as customers! This is the US cutting off their citizens' ability to get their wealth out of US dollars (& therefore the US itself). This is what every nation has done just before they raise taxes exorbitantly AND devalue their own currency.

The greenback is doomed, Ferfal, so I'd rethink that move to the US if I were you--it will be WORSE there than in Argentina. My advice is to move to Australia or NZ.

Ciao,
Ex-Canuck in Godzone

Anonymous said...

Maldek wrote: "A visit to a local store reveals further evidence - "made in china" this, "made in china" that. So it MIGHT be that the world cant live without china now but what exactly is still "made in USA"?"

The Chinese export the hand shovels you find in your local hardware store. We export Caterpillar and John Deere backhoes. The Chinese export toy airplanes. We export Boeing 777s. The Chinese export melamine-tainted milk products. We export pharmaceuticals. I'm okay with China manufacturing useless, low-tech, plastic junk and selling it here. As long as we manufacture the good stuff and sell it to the world.

Anonymous said...

The USA has it's weaknesses, mainly a huge debt load at the moment that Obama is making worse. But over all when SHTF comes to America we will be a lot better off than most.

Our standard of living will drop, crime etc will increase, particularity the gangs.

But it is all a matter of perspective, even if we got hit with a currency crisis like the one in Argentina we would still have a much higher standard of living. when Argentina's peso went under GDP per capita fell to $2,700, or about 2/3 from the high in 1998.

If the same thing happened in America we would still see a GDP per capita on the order of $15,000. Most of the has a much lower annual earning rate than that. It would suck big time, but looking at it objectively, we'd have to fall a lot farther to get to the same place Argentina was.

The value of the dollar would have to fall to like 1/20th of what it is now.

Odds are right now is a good time to buy some dollars (gold is better though.) The dollar is going to be a great hedge against the meltdown of the Euro.

The Euro is a doomed currency based on the flawed idea that Europe could as a cohesive unit like the United States. It can't.

The UK was wise not to get sucked into the euro zone.

The U.S dollar and British pound will once again be the preeminent reserve currencies and safe haven assets of choice the world over.

Dermott said...

Anonymous, you got it wrong. The Chinese are getting those companies to share their advanced technology with China.
I've looked around my state, many empty homes, the manufacturing base is gone.
As a country, the US is in real trouble . . we're just putting off the inevitable.
Think of Katrina and the Gulf oil leak. The response is incredibly incompetant . . don't depend on the federal government. The head of the Federal Reserve in New York is from where? . . Goldman Sachs! The rich get richer!
We are going like Argentia, the middle class is being sold out.
Every major institution . . government, schools, church, etc has and is having major failings.
We can't do simple things right like keep dangerous illegals out of the country because some one has figured out how to make money by not doing it right.
Try this one . . . snowstorm, the food stores only have 2 days supply. . . and some of you are going to depend on the government?
Money talks and bs walks. The Army has known since the 60's that the M16 jams and has other problems. They actually blamed it on the troops for not keeping the guns clean . duh? kind of hard while knee deep in mud while someone is shooting at you. Read the book "We Were Soldiers Once and Young" or read "Blackhawk Down". Troops in Afghanistan and Iraq have complained but the Generals dont' give a s**t! Arms companies still sell them crap while an AK 47 can be rusty and still fire properly. That's another institution that has failed us, the military. . .not the troops but the leadership. Look at some Generals uniform. There are more medals and badges on them than ever - they must have full time medal writers. . .then take a look at Eisenhower in uniform. Just an example of all show but no depth.

Anonymous said...

It's almost as if many people in the U.S. don't think China exports tractors

http://www.made-in-china.com/Transportation-Catalog/Tractor.html

Jet airplanes cannot be far behind:

"The C919 forms part of China's long-term goal to break Airbus and Boeing's duopoly, and will compete against Airbus A320 family and the Boeing 737 Next Generation."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C919

Made in China is getting a better reputation for durability while made in the U.S. ~ not-so-much, as evidenced by the market choices of those who buy Toyota's, Honda's and other imports. Pharmaceuticals cannot be far behind.

What happens when China can create everything it needs? No need for U.S. imports then. Who will fill the void?

A mad worldwide rush to devalue currencies and lower wages, who wins that race?