I got asked this question on a radio interview recently. It’s a popular question that I avoid answering as much as possible because there´s no right answer. You can´t predict these things with any degree of practical accuracy. No one knows when S%@! will Hit the Fan, and those that venture guesses always claim the sky is falling next year. Claim the same thing year after year and who knows, eventually you might get lucky.Now, in spite of my rule regarding this question this time I ventured a response of some sort. Not a SHTF date, but lets say a time when I’d be just a bit more concerned than usual. As always, I gave it based on common sense, logic, a percentage of guestimation and a dose of my own experience in this field.
When Cristina Kirchner got reelected with 54% of the votes I knew we had to hurry up our plans and leave as soon as possible. The logic behind this was the following: We had four years of Nestor Kirchner, then four more years of her wife Cristina as president. Then Nestor died and Cristina got reelected. There’s no husband anymore to take office after her and unless she changes the constitution (which she is trying to do) this will probably be her last term. Before the reelection Cristina played it safe trying to keep things calm so as to not upset people. It was safe to assume that after the reelection she would let go and run with any plans she didn’t dare put into motion before the elections. Not a week after her reelection, she started with some of the most draconian financial measures, banning the purchase of dollars, increasing taxes and the cost of living and inflation jumped when most services went up in price.
If I had to bring out the crystal ball for what´s going to happen in U.S., I´d say that Obama will play it safe also until the elections and only afterwards play some of his more unpopular cards. Here again, there’s nothing to lose after the election is won, and what he didn’t dare go for in the first term he will try to do in his second one if he wins.
Things I’d watch for:
1) Attempts to restrict the 2nd Amendment. Get your concealed carry permit now, just in case.
2) More taxes and controls for people that want to be self-reliant. (food production, power, taxing the use of water) Try keeping a low profile and fly under the radar.
3)As Obama said, “If You’ve Got a Business, You Didn’t Build That”, so expect more controls and more start up costs for starting businesses after the elections. Better do it now if you had something planned.
4)Because presidents that start wars tend to get reelected, the Iran card may be the exception here and may be used before the elections. A tragic incident of considerable proportions or terrorist attack (foreign or domestic, as Matt Bracken would say) may also work.
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