Saturday, September 29, 2012

What will happen in USA after the Elections?

29 comments:

farmland investment said...

Things will be very ugly after the elections. I personally am worried about hyperinflation. The FED and other central banks are out of control!

Don Williams said...

1) Ferfal is right -- the ruling elite tries to arrange it so that
the big bag of manure always drops down out of the sky AFTER
the election.

2) For example, news flash from October 2008 -- unemployment
is slowly creeping up. Then look at how MASSIVE layoffs suddenly occurred right AFTER the election was held on November 4, 2008:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_3bGnkNeoPxk/SqQoNDfmXPI/AAAAAAAADJo/7F3oRcmj21g/s400/august09-job-losses-bls.png
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_4jIlyJ10uJU/SyoojcM1prI/AAAAAAAAFRc/hCHGNV0vbto/s400/Establishment+Jobs.JPG

3) And things are even worse than what the above charts indicate --
because the POPULATION has been steadily growing all the time.
Every May, US universities and high schools graduate another large
batch of job seekers.

Don Williams said...

4) I remember the stupid US news media spending weeks during the
1988 Presidential campaign going on about candidate Gary Hart's
affair with a young women.

Two weeks AFTER the election, they announced that there was something
called the "Savings and Loan" problem -- which would require
a $125 Billion bailout from the taxpayers.

Including, by the strangest
coincidence, $1.3 Billion for the Silverado bank run by Neil Bush,
son of the newly elected President George H Bush.

The Reagan-Bush Administration took over Silverado on behalf of the taxpayers on December 10, 1988 -- one month after the election.

The voters finally discovered who was being screwed -- and it wasn't Gary Hart's mistress.

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/12/16/business/tax-money-to-aid-savings-banks-is-seen-as-item-in-reagan-budget.html?ref=savingsandloanassociations

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis#Silverado_Savings_and_Loan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis#Major_causes_and_lessons_not_learned_per_William_K._Black

Mark Smith said...

What will happen in the USA after the elections? Absolutely nothing. That's what's nice about the USA. No riots, no looting, no mobs, no coups, etc.

Sure, the quality of politician could be better. Generally speaking though, politicians are the same, no matter what party they're technically in. They play the same games, they take money from big corporations and special interests and pay only lip service to the will of their constituents.

Oh well. At least there aren't riots and coups.

Maldek said...

You are worried about the loss of freedom?

Debt and freedom are mutal exclusive.

SurvivalAndProsperity.com said...

Nice job on the video. "The path is set... just get as ready as possible." My thoughts exactly.

Raymond Chow said...

If Romney wins hopefully the Bush tax cut will remain even if it expires in January it will pushed for renewal, Cap and Trade hopefully will not be pushed through, Obamacare hopefully will be rescinded, the Keystone pipeline will be signed, ban of drilling in the Gulf will be lifted, support for Muslims will be scaled back and support for Israel will return to the way it was. If Obama wins were in differ crapper than we are now.

Stop saying Obama will win just because you poll the dumbest of Americans namely the Democrats. It's not over until the fat lady sings.

Anonymous said...

Ferfal - have you ever stopped to consider that democracy itself might be part of the problem?

People have learned that they can vote themselves money or vote for the government to wave a magic wand that denies reality by government decree, whether that reality is a foreign threat, cultural decline or economic turmoil.

We didn't get to this point in the USA because an evil conspiracy took it upon themselves to destroy everything good about it, we got here by giving equal voting power to anyone over 18 with a pulse.

Anonymous said...

Ferfal - have you ever stopped to consider that democracy itself might be part of the problem?

People have learned that they can vote themselves money or vote for the government to wave a magic wand that denies reality by government decree, whether that reality is a foreign threat, cultural decline or economic turmoil.

We didn't get to this point in the USA because an evil conspiracy took it upon themselves to destroy everything good about it, we got here by giving equal voting power to anyone over 18 with a pulse.

Sidvic said...

Haha! Ferfal is a pretty boy. All kidding aside, I woke up to potential problems on the horizon when I read that Mike Burry had folded his hedge fund and started to invest in arable land with its own water source. He was featured in “the Big Short” and called the housing crisis first. I can’t understand the economics of current times, so my strategy has been to identify those who have proven to have some clue and examine where they are headed. I started following Ferfal because I consider the argentine experience illustrative.

That stated, argentina didn’t have a world reserve currency and a military that bestrides-the-earth-like-a-colossus. So where do you look for parallels? Fall of Rome? Maybe but... I must admit I am highly unsure.

dwr said...

Why were you trying to emigrate to the U.S. if our fate is basically sealed? Not sure I understand the thinking there.

lostinamerica said...

Debt and Freedom are not mutually exclusive. When you owe someone money, they have control.

The borrower is the slave to the lender. Proverbs 22:7.

I am sure Ferfal will agree that as the debt and currency crisis worsened in Argentina, freedoms became more and more restricted. Since Ferfal has left, restrictions on economic activity have increased in Argentina. It will not be different in the USA.

Don Williams said...

1) The US President controls the increase in government debt -- only he has the veto.
The last three Republican Presidents piled up a massive amount of federal debt -- almost $10 Trillion. While at the same time telling their Republican supporters that they intended to "balance the budget". Democratic Presidents Carter and Clinton look like fiscal conservatives by comparison:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/National-Debt-GDP-L.gif

2) In the mean time, the richest 1 percent increased their share of the national income from 8% in 1978 to around 24% in 2007. It then fell to 18% in 2009 but has recovered to 20% in 2010 because of the massive Welfare program known as the Financial Bailout.

3) If the Superrichest 1% don't pay some on the debt run up by their Republican puppets, then the rest of us will. Much of the Republican debt was wealth redistribution from the workers to the Superrich, after all.


Don Williams said...

1) It should also be noted that unemployment shot up after the 2000 election from 4 percent to 6.5% as Bill Clinton left office and his Internet Bubble collapsed.

http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/2001unemployment.png

2) Leading George W Bush to pump up a Real Estate bubble to provide jobs. Just as Clinton's Internet bubble made wealthy men in Seattle and California even richer, George W's bubble made the fortunes of the Koch Brothers (Georgia Pacific Lumber) and the conservative owners of Home Depot.

Plus those two wars didn't exactly hurt the revenues of the defense contractors.

3) Some people may recall how Texas Enron caused rolling blackouts in California in 2000:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/04/national/04energy.html?_r=0

While most think it was just some energy traders playing games, I have always wondered if it was Dick Cheney's buddies trying to bankrupt some Clinton/Gore donors.

A form of economic sabotage. Those blackouts weren't too helpful to shaky Internet businesses trying to keep computer server farms up, heh heh.

Anonymous said...

Quite frankly, there isn't enough of a difference between the two mainstream-media-approved candidates (Romney and Obama) to make a difference in the long run. It's rather like debating whether a Honda Fit or Toyota Yaris is better. They are both Japanese subcompacts with far more similarities than their mostly cosmetic differences.

And for what it's worth, even if Ron Paul (for example) were elected, we have so much unsustainable debt/unfunded entitlement programs that I think we would still be in big trouble. We are headed for the fiscal cliff, and I believe it is now too late to avoid a disaster.

Penny Pincher said...

I don't see how you think there's no riots or looting, these things are already happening in flash mobs.

Economic Collapse News said...

Great video Ferfal. I mainly agree with everything except where you said that anarchists don't know what they are talking about. Lew Rockwell and Murray Rothbard definitely know what they are talking about.

Saying that we need government is like saying yes free markets work for some things but for certain services we need a criminal gang to monopolize and exploit. What needs to change for anarcho-capitalism to work is the perceived legitimacy of the state, because of course it is entirely illegitimate.

Anonymous said...

FerFAL tells us that the United States is going the way of Argentina, Venezuela, and Cuba where Marxist leftist dictators have taken over. After the election, FerFAL says things will get much worse under OsamaObama. FerFAL left Argentina because of the terrible conditions there--where to go now if the U.S. and other countries are becoming just as bad?

Anonymous said...

Raymond Chow is right. Romney intends to replace Ben Bernanke at the Fed. Knowing Paul Ryan, I'd say there's a good chance that Fed power and the printing of money will be dialed back.

The candidates are definitely not the same.

Butoeskor said...

I'm sure the Romans would have said of Rome the same thing Americans say about the USA: "A war here is impossible. We are too big to fail."

Steve said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Raymond Chow said...

http://www.skymachines.com/US-National-Debt-Per-Capita-Percent-of-GDP-and-by-Presidental-Term.htm

@Don Williams..."The last three Republican Presidents piled up a massive amount of federal debt -- almost $10 Trillion."

The only no one worst than a crapper is a liar. Look at the link above and tell me how much deficit did Clinton and Obama put together in comparison to the last 3 Republican administration?

Anonymous said...

President Obama is falsely claiming that his administration’s policies are responsible for “about 10 percent” of the deficits “over the last four years.” The cumulative deficit during that time is nearly $5.2 trillion. Obama signed two bills — the 2009 stimulus and the 2010 tax cut — that alone cost $1.6 trillion during that time, or nearly a third of the cumulative four-year deficit. The national debt has climbed 60% on the President's watch. Deficit spending during Obama’s four years in the White House (based on his own figures) will be an estimated $5.170 trillion which works out to just over $17,000 per person in the United States.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2012/06/14/president-obama-the-biggest-government-spender-in-world-history/

Anonymous said...

I don't get Ron Paul voters who believe that there's no difference between the candidates.

In Obama's four years, US aid to foreign countries has increased 80%. It had been falling for Bush's last three years, but it's exploded under Obama. We now pay 76% more in foreign aid than we do protecting our borders.

There's a reason Ron Paul is a Republican.

Steve said...

South Africa may be collapsing.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-03/south-african-economy-paralyzed-miner-strike-spreads-truck-drivers

Steve said...

Americans think it cannot happen to them. That’s true American exceptionalism.
Close to half of America is already living a third world existence, either in poverty or barricaded in gated communities. The US earns 60 cents of every dollar it spends, how much longer can this go on? What will happen when the 40 cents disappear, mass civil unrest in a population living from paycheck to paycheck and armed to the teeth?
I have thought about this and concluded America is on the brink of a great collapse.
http://thinkingaboot.blogspot.ca/2011/10/not-survivalist.htm
how to survive this collapse
http://thinkingaboot.blogspot.ca/2011/05/how-long-till-great-collapse.html
Evidence of the event from America’s third biggest city
http://thinkingaboot.blogspot.ca/2011/06/new-nihilism-in-chicago.html

The only hope for America is for the government to do things like Fernando says. Restore the real capitalist economy. Reduce government spending and increase taxes to a balanced budget.

Don Williams said...

Raymond

1) A President approves a budget late in the year that specifies the spending
for the following year. Even if the following year starts with the inaugural of his
successor.

Therefor, To see what debt a president ran up, you start with the
debt as percentage of GDP at the END of his first year and then look at the
Debt at the end of the first year of his successor.

2) Using YOUR OWN REFERENCE:

Debt at the end of term of each President as % of GDP:
Carter: 32.9%
Reagan: 53.8
George H Bush: 68.1% -> Reagan& Bush 1 INCREASED debt by 35.2%
Clinton: 57.8% -> Clinton REDUCED debt as percent of GDP by 10.3%
George W Bush: 86.4% -> Bush2 INCREASED debt by 28.6%
Obama (as of 6/30/2012) : 101.7% -> Obama INCREASED Debt by 15.3 %

3) NOTE however that Obama has been dealing with the worst economic collapse
since the Great Depression of 1929. While I think he should have greatly hiked
taxes on the rich for that, there is no denying that George W Bush was in charge
of the financial regulatory system for 8 years and that HE is responsible for this
Great Bush Recession. As I noted above, Look at the massive job losses that
occurred in the last 2.5 months of George W's administration and the first 4
months of Obama's administration (which clearly were George W's fault.).

4) Using Your current dollar column, Reagan -Bush ran up debt by $3.5 Trillion and Bush 2
by 6.4 Trillion --> $9.9 Trillion. In 8 years , Clinton increased it by only $1.4 Trillion and Obama by
$3.5 Trillion for a total of $4.9 Trillion. The Presidents of the previous 200 years
up through Carter had left us a debt of only $1 Trillion. Total as of June 2012 is $15.8 Trillion.
In my opinion, $2 Trillion of Obama's debt should also be charged to the Republicans as
cost of fixing the Great Bush Recession.


5) I have noted in the past that Bill Clinton and Larry Summers joined with Republican
Senator Phil Graham of Texas in destroying financial and banking regulations set up
by FDR. I have also noted that I consider Bill Clinton to be as much of a prostitute
for the Rich as Reagan and the two Bushes.

But since Carter left office, federal debt has increased by 68.8% of GDP. At least
63.8 % was the fault of the last 3 Republican President. If you add in another
8% for George W causing the Great Recession, the Republican responsibility is
71.8% of GDP. (It is higher than the total because Clinton REDUCED the debt
by 10.3 percentage points)

5) We should judge results by the facts and by what is best for the People of the USA--
not by ideology, a sports fan's unthinking devotion to a team, or a cartoonish view of Reality.

Don Williams said...

Re Steve on Oct 3 at 8:59AM:
"The only hope for America is for the government to do things like Fernando says. Restore the real capitalist economy"
--------------
The Superrich have dumped $2 Billion into this election: 1 billion for the Republicans and 1 billion for the Democrats.
http://www.opensecrets.org/overview/index.php

Do you think they are BUYING a "real capitalist economy"??

Wags said...

Don't dismiss free market anarchism so quickly! The State shouldn't have a monopoly on providing any services. Not roads, security, justice, education, etc. They have a license to steal and that is the root of the problem.