Thursday, May 15, 2014

Black Swan Event: Can You Prepare for it?


3 comments:

TampaMark said...

Since I live in hurricane country that would not be a BSE. The Tampa area though, has not had one in 60+ years. The Indians called this area a 'safe place' since the storm tracks tend to skirt this section. Believe me, no one is ready for a Katrina in this area because of the absence of one in the recent past. So it can act like a BSE.

One BSE that no one can prepare for is a terrorist attack with WMDs. Even a high altitude nuke creating an EMP would destroy all the electronics in this country. Again, a low/high proposition.

And lastly, we came to within hours of a BSE in 2008 with the collapse of Lehman Bros. That would have brought down the whole world's economic system. The US came close in the early 1970's but not like 2008. We have far more debt, less resources and are more fossil fuel dependent than then also. So if the next Lehman Bros. goes down does it become a BSE or something we knew could/would happen and not be prepared for it?

Anonymous said...

Choosing to live/work in a high-risk locale and then suffering a disaster is not a BSE, but merely a poor choice for anyone claiming to be a survivalist.

I've seen umpteen people online try to justify their decision to work at a refinery ('can't ends meet at a safer job') or live in the ghetto ('but the rent is cheap/I like the nightlife') and ignore the very real risks they face by living (12-14 hours) or working (8-10 hours) in those hazardous locations.

E.g., a true 'survivalist' would not have kept working at the Twin Towers following the February 1993 bombing.

No amount of 'EDC' gear or any other gadget would have kept you alive if you were at or above the point of impact in the North Tower.

TampaMark said...

I stand corrected on an EMP event wiping out everything electronic. My statement, I have now learned, was very extreme. Some cars and electronics may be damaged but not all. Electrical grid components like transformers can be damaged but not a blanket destruction of everything. See below

A solar storm event only has an effect upon certain vulnerable areas. Quebec had one in 1989 that left 6 million people without electricity. But the whole eastern half of the US certainly is vulnerable. See below.

EP Myths
Link: http://www.futurescience.com/emp/EMP-myths.html

Solar Storms
Link: http://www.earthmagazine.org/article/dangers-solar-storms-which-gives-power-can-also-take-it-away