Three reasons why “developing” nations like Argentina aren’t shielded from the World Crisis

Like we’ve seen in the article about Cafayate there’s people selling land and financial “investments” in Argentina as an attractive opportunity during these complicated times.  In the old days the conquerors got land and gold from the natives in exchange for mirrors and glass beads. Today, the modern day equivalent is taking place when someone offers (and sells!) an American a house in freaking Salta for nearly a quarter or in some cases half a million US dollars. Because of the world-wide economic crisis people want to believe there’s something safe from its influence, something untouched. In the mind of people they associate distance to safety.

This isn’t exclusive to land and real estate, it happens also in the financial and business world where its being promoted that 3^rd world countries (these days the politically correct term is “developing nations”) are “shielded” form the crisis. That’s the term the president of Argentina (she who shall not be mentioned) has been using lately, and it’s the same strategy used by other 3^rd world leaders and entrepreneurs to attract capital. This though, is far from the truth.

The three reasons why Argentina isn’t protected from world events applies to most  3^rd world countries and their own business relationships with other nations:

1)Argentina depends on imports from China (and Brazil in a smaller degree). Anything that affects China will affect us directly.

2)Argentina exports to China and Europe. If those countries have problems, exports go down and we suffer those consequences. China already stopped importing (45% of Argentina’s soy export) soy oil from Argentina two months ago. This may be in reply to the importation bans Argentina has been applying this year for plastic products, or maybe they are speculating that the national peso or US dollar will go down.

3) Argentina Depends on financing from the Spain, USA, Brazil and France. Spain, representing   37% of our foreign investments is already going through a severe crisis which affects us too. If USA has financial problems we suffer them as well.

Give or take one investor or another, the same holds true for most Latin American countries. The fantasy that Argentina and other 3^rd world countries are protected from what’s going on in this globalized world couldn’t be further from the truth.

During “Black Monday” NASDAQ went down 6.9% and the Dow Jones dropped 5.5%. At the same time the stock market in Buenos Aires went down 10.73 %(!). The only reason why people in the financial district didn’t start jumping from their office’s windows is that the stock market of Buenos Aires isn’t as significant, we’re an agricultural country. It can go down 15%, it doesn’t affect us as much as it would happen in a first world country with more important financial activity.  That’s the positive side in terms of economic sturdiness you have in certain way thanks to the 2001 collapse.
The distance may help in terms of physical problems (war, contamination) but the financial world is completely globalized. While a post financial country is smaller and more elemental, its in no way spared from what goes on in the rest of the world, even if it happens to be a great sales pitch to attract foreign investors.

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FerFAL

Worst case financial Scenario

Hi! A reader just asked me what to do to prepare for a worst case situaiton in the next 48hs, what would you do this Monday if you knew that the roof wont rise in August 2nd? An interesting article could be, what would you do if you knew USA will default next week?
FerFAL

Hi Ferfal:

In any event a possible default of a Government, generally does not mean instant disaster. In recent years Turkey and Argentina declared default on their debt and the consequences for the population were very bad but not immediate.

The case of the USA is slightly different since it will imply the lack of salaries payment to public sector  employees.  Certain essential services like health, police, air controllers, firemen and the like, would have practical consequences and a striking effect on the population´s perception of safety and coverage.

The medium term effects  in the economy could be dramatic since the cost of financing (debt) would increase. All prices will go upwards. The subsequent deterioration of the economic situation would be inevitable. I would like to elaborate on this aspect in future comments.

Al in all and although this is not the first time that financial collapse is alarmingly near in the USA, the psychological aspects and impact, are worrisome for the American public.

In order to answer  your question, if a financial major problem is near, try to keep as much cash as you might get…. just in case.

If you have health problems, build up an inventory of medicines you need and keep back up of essential goods for every day consumption. Electricity generation is crucial. In February 2010, the hearthquaqk in Chile left hundreds of thousands of people “incomunicados” when their cell phones run out of batteries. Of course there was no electricity for days in certain areas.

In countries like Argentina gas and energy shortages could be a consequence of disrupted distribution services.

For the time being and as we anticipated a few days ago, this will not happen, an agreement was reached today (August 2nd) by the two major US political parties so, relax….and enjoy it, at least for the short run

A new world order is in preparation hopefully it will not be done by organizations like the Bildelberg Conference Group.
http://madcrisis.blogspot.com/2011/08/preparing-for-worst-case.html

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FerFAL

Handgun recommendation for Women

Dear Mr. Aguirre,
After my son and I read “Surviving the economic collapse”, I started
looking around and paying more attention to everything that is around
me, my family and especially my children.
We’ve made some small steps so far in preparedness around the house
and have extended our trucks emergency kit to hold a few items I
never would have thought of necessary 5 to 10 years ago.
With current events in the US I’m even swallowing my fear of firearms
and figure it is better to know how to handle anything that is in my
home rather than have an irrational fear of the subject as a whole.
So, I have a question for you that I have not found a reasonable,
sane or logical answer to in my search for a plausible answer.
As a newcomer to the gun world, what would you recommend as a decent
gun for a female? I’m not looking for anything showy and have become
weary of gun stores automatically going for the silly pink guns when
I say I’m looking for something for myself.
I am looking for 3 things. Easily carried, easily stored and common
ammo. I settled on a .22 revolver but I’m still not sure if that
would be wise for basic home protection and practice as a first gun
for a newcomer.
Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.
Your book brought hope and direction to an otherwise bleak and dark
future. Thank you for sharing your experiences in a no nonsense and
clear manner.
Gratefully,
LMA

Hi LMA, thanks for your email and I’m glad you found my book useful.
Sounds like you’re more aware now and getting prepared, congratulations!
The kind of people you may come across in gunstores is diverse. Some will advise you well, some will suggest a gun like you said, based on color as if you were buying a purse or accessory, and some will make awful recommendations thinking women can’t handle a “real” caliber. Sometimes they recommend the type of gun they have the hardest time selling. You will rarely get good advice in gunstores, so don’t let them influence you in spite of your own judgment or research.
The type of gun I would recommend depends exclusively of how much time you will put into learning how to shoot it and how much practice you think you’ll be getting.

If you want something that is easy to carry and handle, that will provide good protection in spite of just visiting the range once or twice a year at most, then my recommendation is a 2” snub nose revolver. Such a firearm may not be the most rugged or mechanical simple when it comes to mechanism and repair, but the user interface is indeed the most simple. The snub nose revolver with its 2 or 3 inch barrel means easier weapon retention when struggling with an attacker, no empty chambers to forget about or safeties, no failure to fire drills to practice, and a very instinctive point and shoot method of use that will come in naturally when reacting during an attack. This will serve a person with minimum training during a last ditch defensive situation, at very close range. Of course with a six round capacity and slow reloading your capabilities are more limited, yet adequate for most of the possible defensive encounters you are likely to come up against.

Having said that, in my experience women (and men) shoot better and enjoy shooting Glocks the most when compared to revolvers, even if they are first time shooters. Either the Glock 17 or slightly smaller Glock 19 will serve you well. Both are 9mm so ammo is pretty affordable. While the auto pistol requires a bit more training so as to be proficient with it, it does offer more in terms of firepower and accuracy. When in the shooting range I’ve seen that both women and men shoot faster and more accurately with a Glock than with a short barrel revolver. The Glock has more distance between sights, and the trigger pull is shorter than longer double action pulls. Having 16 or 18 rounds vs 6 also means you can defend yourself from more people. With a 6-shot revolver two or three attackers will be the general limit. If you take into account that hardly 20% of the shots fired will hit your mark according to police statistics,  that means chances are only two of your shots will impact your attacker. This is why I would consider the revolver more appropriate for last resort, close to contact range defense against one or two at most. This is of course light years ahead of begin unarmed, but if you can commit the time to go to the range at least once a month and take a Defensive Pistol shooting class, the Glock is indeed a more capable weapon. The important part is being honest with yourself about how much you will practice and if you will take the class so as to learn how to use it properly or not.

As for calibers, please don’t use a 22LR for defense. While all rounds can kill, not all of them will stop an attacker. People have been choked to death after shooting their attackers several times with a 22LR, it is indeed the weakest caliber you can shoot, and honestly unless you have some serious physical impediment any adult is perfectly capable of handling more efficient calibers like the ones I mention.

Ruger LCR Revolver

Smith & Wesson Night Guard

With a 357 magnum or 38 special+P revolver, you have an acceptable level of stopping power when you buy ammunition for such purpose, same thing with 9mm. Remember that a revolver that shoots 357 magnum will shoot the slightly shorter 38 special and 38 special +P. The 38 special cannot shoot 357 magnum, so you may want to buy a 357 magnum so as to practice with 38 special and keep 357magnum or 38 special +p for defense. The blast of the 357 magnum is a bit more than that of the 38 special so still shoot a few rounds of the more powerful caliber so as to know what to expect.  9mm will have less muzzle blast than a two inch revolver and may be easier to handle if you’re recoil shy.

Glock 19 9mm Pistol

For Glocks, stick to 3^rd generation models for now. As for revolvers, I like Smith & Wessons revolvers such as the Night Guard or M&P and Ruger makes a nice revolver called Ruger LCR-LG that can be bought with an integrated laser sight. Just put the red dot on the attacker’s chest and pull the trigger.
Take care and good luck!

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FerFAL

Out of Control Rioting in London

If you visit the Modern Survivalist Forum you probably know of my plans to move to UK. The US Visa is just impossible to get for someone self-employed, I’ve tried for years literally and will keep on looking for a way, but in the meantime I want to be in a better place than Argentina, so I’m thinking Northern Ireland.

I was talking with my mother last week about this and she kept mentioning the conflict over there between Catholics and Protestants. It seems that while it is still an issue its not nearly as bad as it was during “The Troubles” and such animosity is currently limited to certain   neighborhoods. Heck, for someone coming from Argentina event those are surprisingly nice and clean, and their crime is nothing compared to what I’m used to here. She went on mentioning that England would be better, close to London. I remember telling her that while no place is 100% safe, if I had to play the odds I’d bet on Northern Ireland instead. These are folks that still remember what bad times are like and want to get over it and the smaller population means less trouble while still offering the advantages of a big city. Meanwhile London is a mix of different immigrants with considerable social tension among the various ethnic and religious factions. Combined with an entitlement mentality plus a lack of nerve to handle social unrest as you’re supposed to, where even the use of less than lethal ammo and water guns(!) is forbidden, you can expect to see considerable trouble there eventually. As our kids grow they would see themselves surrounded by all this, and even if you live in the suburbs of London or even a smaller town some distance away, the influence is still there. Belfast with its 300.000 population and its smaller metropolitan area seems more fitting for what we want. Affordable homes, good education and what’s like a dream for us, going for a walk or riding a bike without worrying of our surroundings, that’s all appealing to us.

By pure coincidence just a week later rioting started in London and it is still ongoing. Remember guys, we’ve talked about this numerous times: No city has enough police force to control this sort of thing when it starts and becomes wide spread, and it’s pathetic to see unarmed cops trying to stop looters, arsonists and other criminals with what? Offensive language?
This quote from CNN illustrates how clueless people are regarding how to deal with this sort of problem.

Last year, after student protests turned violent, there were similar calls for the use of water cannons. But Home Secretary Theresa May said then: “I don’t think anybody wants to see water cannon used on the streets of Britain because we have a different attitude to the culture of policing here. We police by consent and it depends on that trust between the police and the public.”

London rioting prompts calls for Tougher Policing
http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/europe/08/09/uk.riots.police/index.html

Rioting and mobs have been discussed here before several times. They are not that much of a problem for the aware person if you know how to handle and mostly avoid them, again , something I’ve written about before, but these events are an indication of social degradation, increasing crime and loss of life quality. Eventually when these incidents occur on a smaller scale but almost on daily basis like we see in 3^rd world countries, then that’s exactly what your country has turned into.

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FerFAL

Seiko Black Monster: Pure Breed Diver’s Watch

What first caught my attention was the watch’s good looks. Even if its purpose oriented designed, the concept of “function follows form” turns out well in this watch with its clear lines only finding the slightest bit of tension by the asimetric position of the crown and bezel guard extending in the lower right corner. The crown is positioned there so it doesn’t dig into your wrist. All this gives the watch its character which combined with reliability and an affordable price (compared to other divers watch)  earned it a bit of a cult following.


The Seiko Black Monster  has a tough self-winding mechanism, robust stainless steel case and bracelet, unidirectional rotating bezel and a screw-down crown for setting the time and calendar. The crystal is curved “Hardlex”, which is proprietary material of Citizen. Its better than mineral crystal but not as scratch resistant as sapphire. Does it mean that sapphire is better then? I don’t think so. Sapphire may not scratch but will shatter on impacts that may just scratch Hardlex, but otherwise leave the watch functional, so it’s a good call for a tough use watch that may be impacted by tools, diving equipment, rocks, etc. Seiko’s patented lume material, Lumibrite, is the brightest found on any watch. It’s impressive when you expose it to a light source and turn off the lights. Only tritium vials would do a better job, and then again only in the long run when the lume in the Black Monster wears out and needs light once again. This fortunately takes long enough so its not a problem overnight.

Seiko Divers Automatic Black Monster

Seiko “Orange Monster” Automatic Dive Watch


Survival Watch?

While some watches have navigation tools or more intense LED that could be used for illumination, I’m not sure about watches being “survival” equipment. Maybe a digital compass can be a life saver or the intense LED in some watches be used for some emergencies, but I believe it would fall into the “makes life easier” category instead. That’s still good enough reason to get a Suunto Core or Casio Pathfinder if you’re inclined to do so.

What the Seiko Black Monster offers that appeals to me is excellent built, ruggedness and the lack of need of batteries to keep on working. Some people may also like the fact that it would not be affected by EMP because it has no electric components. In a very unlikely scenario where batteries are no longer available, all you would need would be some maintenance every couple decades or so.
Why even carry a watch then if I already have one in my cell phone?

Obviously keeping track of time would be number one. Depending on your line of work and lifestyle you may be checking the time of the day on your cellphone several dozen times a day. When you have meetings, kids to pick up from school, planes to catch, last minute deadlines, the plotter guy closing at exactly 5PM and you wondering if its worth making a run for it or not, just checking your wrist is easier than going for your cell. One other thing to keep in mind, especially if you work in big cities where opportunist burglars may abound, is that getting your cellphone out increases the chances of it getting snatched from you. In Buenos Aires you notice that the more cautious people or the ones that got tired of getting their cell phones robbed, they move aside into a store or building entrance to talk while away from the sidewalk where the pedestrian transit makes for a quick grab n’ run. Getting a nice cellphone stolen doesn’t come in cheap, better use a watch for keeping the time of the day.
The Seiko Monster is offered in several colors, but the most popular ones are the ones that I have, the Black and Orange Monster. The only difference is the color of the face of the dial, but for some reason that change alone makes the look and feel like completely different watches.
The Black Monster is more formal and classic. It wouldn’t be out of place while wearing a suit. The Orange Monster looks very good but its clearly less formal, more appropriate for casual wear, especially during summer. I suppose the Black Monster is the more versatile of the two.
Something different from my regular posts folks. If you’re an analog type of guy you’ll love this watch, and this is one of the toughest ones out there.
Take care,

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FerFAL