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Anonymous said...
Hey Ferfal, considering the current and coming shitestorms in the middle east. Perhaps a good idea would be to get your booktranslated into Arabic, I'm sure you have readers who would be willing to do it for free. Egypt pretty much has shutdown and people are hurting. And there will be a great demand for the type of information you provide in your book in the middle east.
Yes, talk about things going to hell fast. In countries where there´s a population very mad at their president and the corruption reaches insulting levels these things happen.
Its the same old story and not that different from our own: They are fed up and want the guy to leave, and the rioting and civil unrest makes this all abundantly clear. Notice two things right away:
1) No president, no government of any kid can «win» against an infuriated population. Remember this next time someone says things such as “Oh, but what can people do against armies, aircrafts, infantry and artillery?” Its actually the other way around. You can´t win a war against your own population guys. That´s on of the best kept secrets by those in power.
2) They just want Mubarak to leave. This is typical textbook scenario. We took the streets so as to kick President De la Rua out, feed up of every one of them politicians with the famous «Que se vayan todos» (Kick them all out).
In survival terms, the basics any recurrent reader of this blog knows by heart by now. Have supplies, have water, weapons so as to defend yourself. Have a defendable position, upgrade your home´s security. (videos on this coming soon) During Argentina 2001 some phone lines collapsed due to the amount of talking going on, people here used email and text messages to organize different demonstrations and protests in their neighborhoods. In Egypt they went a far as blocking the internet. Even that couldn´t stop the inevitable since they found ways around it using twitter through the ordinary phone. You could still tweet without internet by phonecalls to USA. This of course shows how the dieing giant tries to control things. Keep a radio to know whats going on, even better get a police scanner and UHF/VHF radio
to gather information. When you have a police scanner and know some of the frequencies used by cops, civil defense, firemen, or emergency response you get a much better idea of whats happening out there. USA Next?
No, at least not right away. But notice the things that cause people to just be fed up.
“The country has gone to ruin,” Abdelaziz said. “Everything is expensive. How will my son marry, get an education, set up a household? There are no jobs, only for a select few. We have no hope.”
http://www.examiner.com/unemployment-in-san-diego/civil-unrest-riots-egypt-99ers-is-usa-next#ixzz3qF06c9pu
That´s it right there, folks. People that are used to being poor for generations may take longer to react. But ever rising Inflation? That´s what destroys a social class that once knew better. That´s what causes a country to explode like a powder keg. Happened in Argentina, happened in Egypt, will keep happening in other places. Know these things so you´re not caught entirely by surprise. As inflation an unemployment grow and at some point get out of control, that´s when all hell breaks loose.
Going out during the eruption stages of civil unrest is not the smartest thing to do. Stay put until things calm down. DONT GO OUT. This may sound obvious but those of us that saw these kind of demonstrations in our country have experienced something some of you may not: You WANT to go out there and peacefully demonstrate how fed up you are, you want that guy to flee like a dirty rat, bad. This is where the survival mindset should kick in. Even though you want to be part of the historic moment and participate with those that get rid of the tyrant, its just not safe and the person with a family to provide for should remember his responsibilities.
And then... what?
This is what people in Egypt don´t know and may cause their utter ruin. What happens after you get what you want. The guy leaves and then...
These revolts are ideal territory for authoritarians to take control. May they be a local warlord, and extreme leftist or right(depending on the extreme of the one that got kicked out) charismatic figure may be voted into power with great popular support. They thrive and spread in these environments like bacteria in an infected wound.
In my opinion, the best possible outcome is not to have the guy escape like a rat through a tunnel or chopper like in our case. The best outcome is to leave him no other option but to call for elections within 6 months. Time enough for listening to serious propositions, not enough time for people to calm down and allow the rat to stay in place. This way the deomcratic process continues and isn’t interrupted. Believe me you don’t want that, no matter how much of a scumbag the president may be. You don’t want that because the one that gets hurt the most is the country´s image to the rest of the world. It takes decades to heal the damage the representative process suffers.
Much better to VOTE the rat out of power than kicking him out with rioting and pitch fork and flaming torch wielding masses. After that, the best person to plaice in office is a smart, conservative person, not too much to the right, not too much left leaning either. In times like these moderation is your best friend for a quick recovery, and charisma, smiles, good looks but no ideas and empty speeches are your worst enemy.
FerFAL
