Thursday, April 19, 2012

Chances of another Falkland/Malvinas War?

Yes things were roped when I was in BA & Bariloche earlier on this year.
Trouble is ennui on the part of my family who think the cycle is just repeating & things will get better. I think that’s a common attitude amongst the 40 odd % who aren’t peronists.
Who knows maybe Christina may still go for broke and try and re-take the Falklands (with Chavez’s help of course as the military won’t want to be massacred )!

There really isnt a chance in hell that Argentina will go to war. They just cant, its impossible. Chavez talks a lot but he’s not stupid nor is he suicidal.
First of all there’s no military force. At all. The Kirchners themselves made it their policy to completely destroy the Argentine military as their political stance.

To understand this you have to understand where the Kirchners come from. In their youth they aligned with an organization called the “Montoneros”. These where supposed to be left leaning peronists. They were so much to the left that not even Peron liked them. During the Argentine “Dirty War” the ruling Junta committed crimes against humanity thought they claimed to be fighting local communist terrorists, groups like the Montoneros. Where does the truth lie? Somewhere in between. Its true that innocent people got killed by the Dictatorship just as its true that these Montoneros and other terrorists groups murdered innocent people themselves and even bombed schools.

When the Kirchners took power it was time for payback, the Montoneros now had the power (in fact many known terrorists became government officials) and they dismantled, disarticulated and very much destroyed the Argentina’s already weakened military.
Argentina hasn’t bought a fighter plane since before the war, nor has it bought any serious weaponry and most of the local military machinery got sold to Brazil long ago. Today there’s even a lack of properly kept small arms, ammo and other elemental supplies.  Argentina couldn’t fight a war against Lady Gaga´s dance squad, let alone UK.

Cristina Kirchner is using this as a way of distracting people from the much more serious local problems such as rampant crime, inflation and corruption. I dare say that given the fact that media such as the BBC reacted as if another war was coming David Cameron was likewise using it both to appeal to people’s patriotism to regain some support and as a smoke curtain to cover more real and urgent problems like the local economy.
Join the forum discussion on this post!


Taylor Harbin said...

Nuts. If they lost in the Falklands again they'd lose power like the last regime who tried it.

gaga said...

"James Cameron"

The Famous film maker (Titanic, Aliens, Avatar, Terminator 2 etc)

I think you mean David Cameron, UK prime minister and overall comedian.

Chaz said...

My comment was slightly tongue in cheek however considering CFK's ability to alienate her fellow mercosor leaders it would not be surprising if in one last throw of the dice, a group of activists try and create an incident to create sympathy.

As for the state of the military, yes it has basically been disarmed & would have difficulty fighting a border conflict with one of its neighbours. When we were driving past the mountain regiment in Bariloche I couldn't believe the lack of security compared with a similar base in Europe !

Honestly though I believe that the military would refuse any orders to try and get in a shooting match with the Poms...

folti said...

Heh, anyone who believes that the current Argentinian military has a realistic chance to beat the Falklands' garrison is either delusional or high on some good stuff. Or both. Even if they team up with Venezuela (which comes with it's own problems, like how do you move Venezuelan assets to Argentina, without anyone noticing and sending reinforcements), it would be a risky job, making both countries bigger international pariah as they are now. Without Veeezuelan help(esp. their amphibous transports) it's hopeless.