Thursday, February 12, 2015
There’s been a lot of talk lately about the possibility of Greece leaving the EU and dropping the Euro. If we pay attention to Alan Greenspan, the Euro is doomed. I do pay attention to people like Greenspan as well as what is being said by the mainstream media in general but not for the information they provide, but for what they want us to believe and the agenda behind it.
This is a very important distinction, and one that you better learn to understand, because it keeps getting worse: The mainstream media is not there to inform you. It’s there to create a specific public opinion by misinforming you. The mainstream media is not there to serve you, the viewer. It’s there to serve its owners and their interests, something that makes complete sense but we often forget.
Greece leaving the Eurozone
When we hear that Greece is about to be kicked out of the EU, the intention is to force Greece into agreeing to the IMF and European banks conditions. This is of course not in Greece’s best interest.
What’s most likely to happen? It depends. The two most likely scenarios are Greece staying in the EU, not leaving it. In the first case, and the one I believe is more likely, the newly elected government does as it has promised and fights for a better deal, repaying at a 1 or 2% of the GDP instead of 4%, in a manner that Greece can slowly pay its debt but not bleed to death while doing so, which is often what banks and vulture funds want. Syriza already went from “we’re not paying” to “we’ll pay but under more favorable terms”. So far, they’ve been allowed to get away with it, but I doubt the Greek people will sit while they are thrown under the bus. In the second scenario, the Syriza government is bullied or paid off to continue with the austerity measures they said they would oppose. In this case, Greece stays in the EU but there’s more chances of internal problems within Greece due to the already tough conditions and political betrayal. Finally, and although possible I would say is the least likely outcome, Greece leaves the EU and drops the Euro. Here, Greece would go through a short term period of instability but given the greater power of managing your own currency Greece would be seeing a lot of progress in just a couple years. Still, being out of the EU in a world where you’re either USA, EU, Russia or China, not being part of something bigger does have its disadvantages. This is the least likely scenario most of all because this is the one in which the EU and the Euro are damaged the most, bankers don’t get paid, and therefore I doubt the European bankers will go for it, they would make a much better offer to Greece rather than seeing them go and do such damage to the stability of the EU. Also, given the situation in Ukraine with Russia, the last thing the EU or even the United States needs is Greece in the pocket of Russia.
War in Ukraine
A ceasefire has just been agreed but I don’t think we’ll see any immediate results any time soon. Putin doesn’t joke around and literally as the ceasefire is agreed Putin is sending dozens of tanks and missile launchers across the border into Ukraine. War in Ukraine will persist throughout the year but at the same time I believe that in spite of the very real risk of the conflict extending through Europe, chances are it will stay mostly in Ukraine and maybe just in Eastern Ukraine. The reasons for this are several. First, Europe doesn’t want war. UK is not interested in fighting such a powerful foe, neither is Germany, who also happens to be further east closer to the angry bear’s border. The European elite is happy enough going back to leaving Ukraine alone and not risk it, and Russia is happy enough with Europe stepping down. On the other hand USA needs another war but then again ISIS is going well and promising a good number of those highly needed military contracts. While the military lobby needs an enemy to get those contracts rolling, they much rather spend it fighting ISIS and maybe have to deal with a terrorist attack on US soil every once in a while and a few military personnel casualties, rather than go fight Russia and start throwing nukes at one another.
Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre is the author of “The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse” and “Bugging Out and Relocating: When Staying is not an Option”.